Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics
Abstract
This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Lastly, results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events,more »
- Authors:
-
- Pohang Univ. of Science and Technology (POSTECH) (Korea, Republic of). Division of Environmental Science and Engineering
- Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science
- National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
- Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway). Uni Research Climate
- German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)
- Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria BC (Canada). Environment and Climate Change Canada
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF); Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1523641
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC2-5CH11231
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Environmental Research Letters
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 13; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
- Publisher:
- IOP Publishing
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Lee, Donghyun, Min, Seung-Ki, Fischer, Erich, Shiogama, Hideo, Bethke, Ingo, Lierhammer, Ludwig, and Scinocca, John F. Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics. United States: N. p., 2018.
Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aab55d.
Lee, Donghyun, Min, Seung-Ki, Fischer, Erich, Shiogama, Hideo, Bethke, Ingo, Lierhammer, Ludwig, & Scinocca, John F. Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics. United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab55d
Lee, Donghyun, Min, Seung-Ki, Fischer, Erich, Shiogama, Hideo, Bethke, Ingo, Lierhammer, Ludwig, and Scinocca, John F. Thu .
"Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics". United States. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab55d. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1523641.
@article{osti_1523641,
title = {Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics},
author = {Lee, Donghyun and Min, Seung-Ki and Fischer, Erich and Shiogama, Hideo and Bethke, Ingo and Lierhammer, Ludwig and Scinocca, John F.},
abstractNote = {This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Lastly, results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/aab55d},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 4,
volume = 13,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu Apr 12 00:00:00 EDT 2018},
month = {Thu Apr 12 00:00:00 EDT 2018}
}
Web of Science
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