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Title: Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios

Abstract

In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006–2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change tomore » 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1];  [2]
  1. NCAS‐ClimateUniversity of Reading Reading UK, Department of MeteorologyUniversity of Reading Reading UK
  2. Department of MeteorologyUniversity of Reading Reading UK
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1423391
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1423392; OSTI ID: 1544312
Grant/Contract Number:  
DE‐AC02‐05CH11231; AC02‐05CH11231
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Earth's Future
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Volume: 6 Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES

Citation Formats

Chevuturi, Amulya, Klingaman, Nicholas P., Turner, Andrew G., and Hannah, Shaun. Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.1002/2017EF000734.
Chevuturi, Amulya, Klingaman, Nicholas P., Turner, Andrew G., & Hannah, Shaun. Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios. United States. doi:10.1002/2017EF000734.
Chevuturi, Amulya, Klingaman, Nicholas P., Turner, Andrew G., and Hannah, Shaun. Thu . "Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios". United States. doi:10.1002/2017EF000734.
@article{osti_1423391,
title = {Projected Changes in the Asian‐Australian Monsoon Region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global‐Warming Scenarios},
author = {Chevuturi, Amulya and Klingaman, Nicholas P. and Turner, Andrew G. and Hannah, Shaun},
abstractNote = {In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above preindustrial conditions, relative to present day (2006–2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable intermodel variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia, and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C above preindustrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming.},
doi = {10.1002/2017EF000734},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = 3,
volume = 6,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {3}
}

Journal Article:
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000734

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Cited by: 8 works
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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario?: SCENARIO DEPENDENCE OF EXTREME RAIN
    journal, October 2015

    • Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Lehner, Flavio; Sanderson, Benjamin M.
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 20
    • DOI: 10.1002/2015gl065854

    Projected increases in daily to decadal variability of Asian-Australian monsoon rainfall: Asian-Australian Monsoon Variability
    journal, June 2017

    • Brown, Josephine R.; Moise, Aurel F.; Colman, Robert A.
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 11
    • DOI: 10.1002/2017gl073217

    Slow and fast responses of mean and extreme precipitation to different forcing in CMIP5 simulations: SLOW AND FAST PRECIPITATION RESPONSES
    journal, June 2017

    • Sillmann, Jana; Stjern, Camilla Weum; Myhre, Gunnar
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 12
    • DOI: 10.1002/2017gl073229

    Australia's Unprecedented Future Temperature Extremes Under Paris Limits to Warming
    journal, October 2017

    • Lewis, Sophie C.; King, Andrew D.; Mitchell, Daniel M.
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 19
    • DOI: 10.1002/2017gl074612

    Uncertainties in future projections of extreme precipitation in the Indian monsoon region
    journal, July 2009

    • Turner, A. G.; Slingo, J. M.
    • Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1002/asl.223

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    • DOI: 10.1002/jame.20015

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    • Reick, C. H.; Raddatz, T.; Brovkin, V.
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    journal, March 2009

    • Alexander, Lisa V.; Arblaster, Julie M.
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    • DOI: 10.1002/joc.1730

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    journal, October 2012


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    journal, February 2013

    • Jourdain, Nicolas C.; Gupta, Alexander Sen; Taschetto, Andréa S.
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    • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1676-1

    Future change of Asian-Australian monsoon under RCP 4.5 anthropogenic warming scenario
    journal, April 2013


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    • Hu, Zeng-Zhen; Latif, Mojib; Roeckner, Erich
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 27, Issue 17
    • DOI: 10.1029/2000gl011550

    Fundamental challenge in simulation and prediction of summer monsoon rainfall
    journal, January 2005


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    journal, September 2005


    Water Vapor and the Dynamics of Climate Changes
    journal, January 2010

    • Schneider, Tapio; O'Gorman, Paul A.; Levine, Xavier J.
    • Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 48, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1029/2009rg000302

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    journal, May 2010

    • McCarthy, Mark P.; Best, Martin J.; Betts, Richard A.
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.1029/2010gl042845

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    journal, April 2012

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    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 117, Issue D8
    • DOI: 10.1029/2011jd017187

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    journal, March 2012

    • Hsu, Pang-chi; Li, Tim; Luo, Jing-Jia
    • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1029/2012gl051037

    Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate
    journal, January 2002

    • Milly, P. C. D.; Wetherald, R. T.; Dunne, K. A.
    • Nature, Vol. 415, Issue 6871
    • DOI: 10.1038/415514a

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    • Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey
    • Nature, Vol. 438, Issue 7066
    • DOI: 10.1038/nature04188

    Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing
    journal, May 2006

    • Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J.; Wittenberg, Andrew T.
    • Nature, Vol. 441, Issue 7089
    • DOI: 10.1038/nature04744

    Slowdown of the Walker circulation driven by tropical Indo-Pacific warming
    journal, November 2012

    • Tokinaga, Hiroki; Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara
    • Nature, Vol. 491, Issue 7424
    • DOI: 10.1038/nature11576

    Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets
    journal, January 2016

    • Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andy J.
    • Nature, Vol. 529, Issue 7587
    • DOI: 10.1038/nature16542

    Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
    journal, June 2016

    • Rogelj, Joeri; den Elzen, Michel; Höhne, Niklas
    • Nature, Vol. 534, Issue 7609
    • DOI: 10.1038/nature18307

    Extreme heat effects on wheat senescence in India
    journal, January 2012

    • Lobell, David B.; Sibley, Adam; Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, J.
    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 2, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1356

    Climate change and the South Asian summer monsoon
    journal, June 2012


    Global flood risk under climate change
    journal, June 2013

    • Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Mahendran, Roobavannan; Koirala, Sujan
    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1911

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    journal, October 2014

    • James, Rachel; Otto, Friederike; Parker, Hannah
    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 11
    • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2411

    1.5 °C and climate research after the Paris Agreement
    journal, February 2016


    Realizing the impacts of a 1.5 °C warmer world
    journal, June 2016

    • Mitchell, Daniel; James, Rachel; Forster, Piers M.
    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 8
    • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3055

    Mapping the climate change challenge
    journal, June 2016

    • Hallegatte, Stephane; Rogelj, Joeri; Allen, Myles
    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 7
    • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3057

    Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming
    journal, May 2017

    • King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.; Henley, Benjamin J.
    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 6
    • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3296

    Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization
    journal, July 2017

    • Wang, Guojian; Cai, Wenju; Gan, Bolan
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