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Title: Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts

Abstract

This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0°C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5°C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5°C of warming include a poleward shift of themore » North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2°C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [4];  [5];  [6]; ORCiD logo [4];  [2];  [3];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [11]; ORCiD logo [12];  [13]
  1. Univ. of Bergen, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  2. Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo (Norway)
  3. Uni Climate, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  4. Univ. of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom)
  5. British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)
  6. ETH Zurich, Zurich (Switzerland)
  7. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  8. German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)
  9. Univ. of Bristol, Bristol (United Kingdom)
  10. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria (Canada)
  11. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba (Japan)
  12. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, Oxford (United Kingdom)
  13. Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Univ. of Bergen, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1462975
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC02-05CH11231
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth System Dynamics (Online)
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Earth System Dynamics (Online); Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 2; Related Information: © 2016 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.; Journal ID: ISSN 2190-4987
Publisher:
European Geosciences Union
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Li, Camille, Michel, Clio, Graff, Lise Seland, Bethke, Ingo, Zappa, Giuseppe, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Fischer, Erich, Harvey, Ben J., Iversen, Trond, King, Martin P., Krishnan, Harinarayan, Lierhammer, Ludwig, Mitchell, Daniel, Scinocca, John, Shiogama, Hideo, Stone, Daithi A., and Wettstein, Justin J. Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts. United States: N. p., 2018. Web. doi:10.5194/esd-9-359-2018.
Li, Camille, Michel, Clio, Graff, Lise Seland, Bethke, Ingo, Zappa, Giuseppe, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Fischer, Erich, Harvey, Ben J., Iversen, Trond, King, Martin P., Krishnan, Harinarayan, Lierhammer, Ludwig, Mitchell, Daniel, Scinocca, John, Shiogama, Hideo, Stone, Daithi A., & Wettstein, Justin J. Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts. United States. doi:10.5194/esd-9-359-2018.
Li, Camille, Michel, Clio, Graff, Lise Seland, Bethke, Ingo, Zappa, Giuseppe, Bracegirdle, Thomas J., Fischer, Erich, Harvey, Ben J., Iversen, Trond, King, Martin P., Krishnan, Harinarayan, Lierhammer, Ludwig, Mitchell, Daniel, Scinocca, John, Shiogama, Hideo, Stone, Daithi A., and Wettstein, Justin J. Mon . "Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts". United States. doi:10.5194/esd-9-359-2018. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1462975.
@article{osti_1462975,
title = {Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts},
author = {Li, Camille and Michel, Clio and Graff, Lise Seland and Bethke, Ingo and Zappa, Giuseppe and Bracegirdle, Thomas J. and Fischer, Erich and Harvey, Ben J. and Iversen, Trond and King, Martin P. and Krishnan, Harinarayan and Lierhammer, Ludwig and Mitchell, Daniel and Scinocca, John and Shiogama, Hideo and Stone, Daithi A. and Wettstein, Justin J.},
abstractNote = {This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0°C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5°C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5°C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2°C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely.},
doi = {10.5194/esd-9-359-2018},
journal = {Earth System Dynamics (Online)},
number = 2,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {2018},
month = {4}
}

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design
    journal, January 2017

    • Mitchell, Daniel; AchutaRao, Krishna; Allen, Myles
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 10, Issue 2
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017

    The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change
    journal, October 2015


    An event attribution of the 2010 drought in the South Amazon region using the MIROC5 model: Event attribution of the 2010 Amazon drought
    journal, May 2013

    • Shiogama, Hideo; Watanabe, Masahiro; Imada, Yukiko
    • Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.1002/asl2.435

    The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate
    journal, January 2013

    • Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B.
    • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 3
    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013

    Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections
    journal, September 2014

    • Shepherd, Theodore G.
    • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2253

    Extreme heat-related mortality avoided under Paris Agreement goals
    journal, June 2018

    • Mitchell, Daniel; Heaviside, Clare; Schaller, Nathalie
    • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 7
    • DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0210-1

    Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream
    journal, April 2010

    • Woollings, Tim; Hannachi, Abdel; Hoskins, Brian
    • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 136, Issue 649
    • DOI: 10.1002/qj.625

    The Canadian Fourth Generation Atmospheric Global Climate Model (CanAM4). Part I: Representation of Physical Processes
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    Response of the North Atlantic storm track to climate change shaped by ocean–atmosphere coupling
    journal, April 2012

    • Woollings, T.; Gregory, J. M.; Pinto, J. G.
    • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 5, Issue 5
    • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1438

    Aerosol–climate interactions in the Norwegian Earth System Model – NorESM1-M
    journal, January 2013

    • Kirkevåg, A.; Iversen, T.; Seland, Ø.
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    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-207-2013

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    • Iversen, T.; Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.
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    • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-389-2013

    Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change
    journal, August 2016

    • Shaw, T. A.; Baldwin, M.; Barnes, E. A.
    • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 9
    • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2783

    Impacts of global warming on Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in the CMIP5 model suite: GLOBAL WARMING IMPACTS ON STORM TRACKS
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    • Eichler, Timothy Paul; Gaggini, Natalie; Pan, Zaitao
    • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 10
    • DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50286

    Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2  °C futures
    journal, January 2017

    • Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Xu, Yangyang; Tebaldi, Claudia
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    • DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-827-2017

    The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system
    journal, April 2011

    • Dee, D. P.; Uppala, S. M.; Simmons, A. J.
    • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 656
    • DOI: 10.1002/qj.828

    Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models
    journal, July 2013