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Title: Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India

Abstract

In June 2013, Uttarakhand experienced a hydro-meteorological disaster due to a 4 d extreme precipitation event of return period more than 100 years, claiming thousands of lives and causing enormous damage to infrastructure. Using the weather@home climate modelling system and its Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts simulations, this study investigates the change in the return period of similar events in a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer world, compared to current and pre-industrial levels. We find that the likelihood of such extreme precipitation events will significantly increase under both future scenarios. We also estimate the change in extreme river flow at the Ganges; finding a considerable increase in the risk of flood events. Our results also suggest that until now, anthropogenic aerosols may have effectively counterbalanced the otherwise increased meteorological flood risk due to greenhouse gas (GHG) induced warming. Disentangling the response due to GHGs and aerosols is required to analyses the changes in future rainfall in the South Asia monsoon region. More research with other climate models is also necessary to make sure these results are robust.

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [3]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2]
  1. Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). School of Geography and the Environment
  2. Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). Environmental Change Inst.
  3. Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). Environmental Change Inst.; Univ. of Oxford (United Kingdom). Dept. of Physics
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1529940
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Environmental Research Letters
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 14; Journal Issue: 4; Journal ID: ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP Publishing
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Kumari, Savitri, Haustein, Karsten, Javid, Hammad, Burton, Chad, Allen, Myles R., Paltan, Homero, Dadson, Simon, and Otto, Friederike E. L. Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India. United States: N. p., 2019. Web. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab0bce.
Kumari, Savitri, Haustein, Karsten, Javid, Hammad, Burton, Chad, Allen, Myles R., Paltan, Homero, Dadson, Simon, & Otto, Friederike E. L. Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India. United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab0bce.
Kumari, Savitri, Haustein, Karsten, Javid, Hammad, Burton, Chad, Allen, Myles R., Paltan, Homero, Dadson, Simon, and Otto, Friederike E. L. Wed . "Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India". United States. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab0bce. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1529940.
@article{osti_1529940,
title = {Return period of extreme rainfall substantially decreases under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming: a case study for Uttarakhand, India},
author = {Kumari, Savitri and Haustein, Karsten and Javid, Hammad and Burton, Chad and Allen, Myles R. and Paltan, Homero and Dadson, Simon and Otto, Friederike E. L.},
abstractNote = {In June 2013, Uttarakhand experienced a hydro-meteorological disaster due to a 4 d extreme precipitation event of return period more than 100 years, claiming thousands of lives and causing enormous damage to infrastructure. Using the weather@home climate modelling system and its Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts simulations, this study investigates the change in the return period of similar events in a 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer world, compared to current and pre-industrial levels. We find that the likelihood of such extreme precipitation events will significantly increase under both future scenarios. We also estimate the change in extreme river flow at the Ganges; finding a considerable increase in the risk of flood events. Our results also suggest that until now, anthropogenic aerosols may have effectively counterbalanced the otherwise increased meteorological flood risk due to greenhouse gas (GHG) induced warming. Disentangling the response due to GHGs and aerosols is required to analyses the changes in future rainfall in the South Asia monsoon region. More research with other climate models is also necessary to make sure these results are robust.},
doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab0bce},
journal = {Environmental Research Letters},
number = 4,
volume = 14,
place = {United States},
year = {2019},
month = {4}
}

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