Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples
Abstract
Infectious disease forecasting aims to predict characteristics of both seasonal epidemics and future pandemics. Accurate and timely infectious disease forecasts could aid public health responses by informing key preparation and mitigation efforts. For forecasts to be fully integrated into public health decision-making, federal, state, and local officials must understand how forecasts were made, how to interpret forecasts, and how well the forecasts have performed in the past. Since the 2013–14 influenza season, the Influenza Division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted collaborative challenges to forecast the timing, intensity, and short-term trajectory of influenza-like illness in the United States. Additional efforts to advance forecasting science have included influenza initiatives focused on state-level and hospitalization forecasts, as well as other infectious diseases. Using CDC influenza forecasting challenges as an example, this paper provides an overview of infectious disease forecasting; applications of forecasting to public health; and current work to develop best practices for forecast methodology, applications, and communication. These efforts, along with other infectious disease forecasting initiatives, can foster the continued advancement of forecasting science.
- Authors:
-
[1];
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA (United States); Oak Ridge Inst. for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States)
- Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists, Atlanta, GA (United States)
- Public Health Institute, Oakland, CA (United States)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA (United States)
- Florida Department of Health, Bartow, FL (United States)
- Florida Department of Health, Miami, FL (United States)
- New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, NY (United States)
- New York Univ. (NYU), NY (United States)
- Harris County Public Health, Houston, TX (United States)
- Houston Health Department, Houston, TX (United States)
- New Jersey Department of Health, Trenton, NJ (United States)
- California Department of Public Health, Richmond, CA (United States)
- State of Connecticut Department of Health, Hartford, CT (United States)
- Washington State Department of Health, Olympia, WA (United States)
- Oregon Health Authority, Portland, OR (United States)
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, PR (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1905018
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0014664; NU38OT000297–01-00
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- BMC Public Health (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: BMC Public Health (Online); Journal Volume: 19; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 1471-2458
- Publisher:
- BioMed Central
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; decision making; disease outbreaks; emergency preparedness; forecast; infectious disease; influenza; pandemic
Citation Formats
Lutz, Chelsea S., Huynh, Mimi P., Schroeder, Monica, Anyatonwu, Sophia, Dahlgren, F. Scott, Danyluk, Gregory, Fernandez, Danielle, Greene, Sharon K., Kipshidze, Nodar, Liu, Leann, Mgbere, Osaro, McHugh, Lisa A., Myers, Jennifer F., Siniscalchi, Alan, Sullivan, Amy D., West, Nicole, Johansson, Michael A., and Biggerstaff, Matthew. Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1186/s12889-019-7966-8.
Lutz, Chelsea S., Huynh, Mimi P., Schroeder, Monica, Anyatonwu, Sophia, Dahlgren, F. Scott, Danyluk, Gregory, Fernandez, Danielle, Greene, Sharon K., Kipshidze, Nodar, Liu, Leann, Mgbere, Osaro, McHugh, Lisa A., Myers, Jennifer F., Siniscalchi, Alan, Sullivan, Amy D., West, Nicole, Johansson, Michael A., & Biggerstaff, Matthew. Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples. United States. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-7966-8
Lutz, Chelsea S., Huynh, Mimi P., Schroeder, Monica, Anyatonwu, Sophia, Dahlgren, F. Scott, Danyluk, Gregory, Fernandez, Danielle, Greene, Sharon K., Kipshidze, Nodar, Liu, Leann, Mgbere, Osaro, McHugh, Lisa A., Myers, Jennifer F., Siniscalchi, Alan, Sullivan, Amy D., West, Nicole, Johansson, Michael A., and Biggerstaff, Matthew. Tue .
"Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples". United States. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-019-7966-8. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1905018.
@article{osti_1905018,
title = {Applying infectious disease forecasting to public health: a path forward using influenza forecasting examples},
author = {Lutz, Chelsea S. and Huynh, Mimi P. and Schroeder, Monica and Anyatonwu, Sophia and Dahlgren, F. Scott and Danyluk, Gregory and Fernandez, Danielle and Greene, Sharon K. and Kipshidze, Nodar and Liu, Leann and Mgbere, Osaro and McHugh, Lisa A. and Myers, Jennifer F. and Siniscalchi, Alan and Sullivan, Amy D. and West, Nicole and Johansson, Michael A. and Biggerstaff, Matthew},
abstractNote = {Infectious disease forecasting aims to predict characteristics of both seasonal epidemics and future pandemics. Accurate and timely infectious disease forecasts could aid public health responses by informing key preparation and mitigation efforts. For forecasts to be fully integrated into public health decision-making, federal, state, and local officials must understand how forecasts were made, how to interpret forecasts, and how well the forecasts have performed in the past. Since the 2013–14 influenza season, the Influenza Division at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted collaborative challenges to forecast the timing, intensity, and short-term trajectory of influenza-like illness in the United States. Additional efforts to advance forecasting science have included influenza initiatives focused on state-level and hospitalization forecasts, as well as other infectious diseases. Using CDC influenza forecasting challenges as an example, this paper provides an overview of infectious disease forecasting; applications of forecasting to public health; and current work to develop best practices for forecast methodology, applications, and communication. These efforts, along with other infectious disease forecasting initiatives, can foster the continued advancement of forecasting science.},
doi = {10.1186/s12889-019-7966-8},
journal = {BMC Public Health (Online)},
number = 1,
volume = 19,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Dec 10 00:00:00 EST 2019},
month = {Tue Dec 10 00:00:00 EST 2019}
}
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