Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia
Abstract
Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, ourmore »
- Authors:
-
- Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Tulane Univ., New Orleans, LA (United States)
- Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1214725
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-06NA25396
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- PLoS Computational Biology (Online)
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: PLoS Computational Biology (Online); Journal Volume: 11; Journal Issue: 5; Journal ID: ISSN 1553-7358
- Publisher:
- Public Library of Science
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES; 60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES; influenza; forecasting; online encyclopedias; seasons; public and occupational health; influenza A virus; natural history of disease; Kalman filter
Citation Formats
Hickmann, Kyle S., Fairchild, Geoffrey, Priedhorsky, Reid, Generous, Nicholas, Hyman, James M., Deshpande, Alina, Del Valle, Sara Y., and Salathé, Marcel. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004239.
Hickmann, Kyle S., Fairchild, Geoffrey, Priedhorsky, Reid, Generous, Nicholas, Hyman, James M., Deshpande, Alina, Del Valle, Sara Y., & Salathé, Marcel. Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia. United States. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004239
Hickmann, Kyle S., Fairchild, Geoffrey, Priedhorsky, Reid, Generous, Nicholas, Hyman, James M., Deshpande, Alina, Del Valle, Sara Y., and Salathé, Marcel. Thu .
"Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia". United States. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004239. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1214725.
@article{osti_1214725,
title = {Forecasting the 2013–2014 influenza season using Wikipedia},
author = {Hickmann, Kyle S. and Fairchild, Geoffrey and Priedhorsky, Reid and Generous, Nicholas and Hyman, James M. and Deshpande, Alina and Del Valle, Sara Y. and Salathé, Marcel},
abstractNote = {Infectious diseases are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality around the world; thus, forecasting their impact is crucial for planning an effective response strategy. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), seasonal influenza affects 5% to 20% of the U.S. population and causes major economic impacts resulting from hospitalization and absenteeism. Understanding influenza dynamics and forecasting its impact is fundamental for developing prevention and mitigation strategies. We combine modern data assimilation methods with Wikipedia access logs and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) reports to create a weekly forecast for seasonal influenza. The methods are applied to the 2013-2014 influenza season but are sufficiently general to forecast any disease outbreak, given incidence or case count data. We adjust the initialization and parametrization of a disease model and show that this allows us to determine systematic model bias. In addition, we provide a way to determine where the model diverges from observation and evaluate forecast accuracy. Wikipedia article access logs are shown to be highly correlated with historical ILI records and allow for accurate prediction of ILI data several weeks before it becomes available. The results show that prior to the peak of the flu season, our forecasting method produced 50% and 95% credible intervals for the 2013-2014 ILI observations that contained the actual observations for most weeks in the forecast. However, since our model does not account for re-infection or multiple strains of influenza, the tail of the epidemic is not predicted well after the peak of flu season has passed.},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004239},
journal = {PLoS Computational Biology (Online)},
number = 5,
volume = 11,
place = {United States},
year = {Thu May 14 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Thu May 14 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
Free Publicly Available Full Text
Publisher's Version of Record
Other availability
Search WorldCat to find libraries that may hold this journal
Cited by: 98 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science
Web of Science
Save to My Library
You must Sign In or Create an Account in order to save documents to your library.
Works referenced in this record:
MapReduce: simplified data processing on large clusters
journal, January 2008
- Dean, Jeffrey; Ghemawat, Sanjay; Mehta, Brijesh
- Communications of the ACM, Vol. 51, Issue 1
Bayesian tracking of emerging epidemics using ensemble optimal statistical interpolation
journal, July 2014
- Cobb, Loren; Krishnamurthy, Ashok; Mandel, Jan
- Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology, Vol. 10
Epidemiological determinants of spread of causal agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome in Hong Kong
journal, May 2003
- Donnelly, Christl A.; Ghani, Azra C.; Leung, Gabriel M.
- The Lancet, Vol. 361, Issue 9371
Real-Time Epidemic Monitoring and Forecasting of H1N1-2009 Using Influenza-Like Illness from General Practice and Family Doctor Clinics in Singapore
journal, April 2010
- Ong, Jimmy Boon Som; Chen, Mark I-Cheng; Cook, Alex R.
- PLoS ONE, Vol. 5, Issue 4
Inferring the origin locations of tweets with quantitative confidence
conference, January 2014
- Priedhorsky, Reid; Culotta, Aron; Del Valle, Sara Y.
- Proceedings of the 17th ACM conference on Computer supported cooperative work & social computing - CSCW '14
Comparison of Filtering Methods for the Modeling and Retrospective Forecasting of Influenza Epidemics
journal, April 2014
- Yang, Wan; Karspeck, Alicia; Shaman, Jeffrey
- PLoS Computational Biology, Vol. 10, Issue 4
A New Heuristic Optimization Algorithm: Harmony Search
journal, February 2001
- Zong Woo Geem, ; Loganathan, G. V.
- SIMULATION, Vol. 76, Issue 2
Seasonal transmission potential and activity peaks of the new influenza A(H1N1): a Monte Carlo likelihood analysis based on human mobility
journal, September 2009
- Balcan, Duygu; Hu, Hao; Goncalves, Bruno
- BMC Medicine, Vol. 7, Issue 1
Wikipedia Usage Estimates Prevalence of Influenza-Like Illness in the United States in Near Real-Time
journal, April 2014
- McIver, David J.; Brownstein, John S.
- PLoS Computational Biology, Vol. 10, Issue 4
Real-time influenza forecasts during the 2012–2013 season
journal, December 2013
- Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia; Yang, Wan
- Nature Communications, Vol. 4, Issue 1
An Ensemble Kalman Smoother for Nonlinear Dynamics
journal, June 2000
- Evensen, Geir; van Leeuwen, Peter Jan
- Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 128, Issue 6
Data driven computing by the morphing fast Fourier transform ensemble Kalman filter in epidemic spread simulations
journal, May 2010
- Mandel, Jan; Beezley, Jonathan D.; Cobb, Loren
- Procedia Computer Science, Vol. 1, Issue 1
Mixing patterns between age groups in social networks
journal, October 2007
- Del Valle, S. Y.; Hyman, J. M.; Hethcote, H. W.
- Social Networks, Vol. 29, Issue 4
A systematic review of studies on forecasting the dynamics of influenza outbreaks
journal, December 2013
- Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Brownstein, John S.; Ramakrishnan, Naren
- Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Vol. 8, Issue 3
A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting
journal, June 2013
- Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Beckman, Richard J.; Shashaani, Sara
- PLoS ONE, Vol. 8, Issue 6
Real Time Bayesian Estimation of the Epidemic Potential of Emerging Infectious Diseases
journal, May 2008
- Bettencourt, Luís M. A.; Ribeiro, Ruy M.
- PLoS ONE, Vol. 3, Issue 5
A Dirichlet process model for classifying and forecasting epidemic curves
journal, January 2014
- Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Leman, Scotland C.; Marathe, Madhav V.
- BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol. 14, Issue 1
Time series analysis via mechanistic models
journal, March 2009
- Bretó, Carles; He, Daihai; Ionides, Edward L.
- The Annals of Applied Statistics, Vol. 3, Issue 1
Efficient data assimilation for spatiotemporal chaos: A local ensemble transform Kalman filter
journal, June 2007
- Hunt, Brian R.; Kostelich, Eric J.; Szunyogh, Istvan
- Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Vol. 230, Issue 1-2
Variational data assimilation with epidemic models
journal, June 2009
- Rhodes, C. J.; Hollingsworth, T. D.
- Journal of Theoretical Biology, Vol. 258, Issue 4
Global Disease Monitoring and Forecasting with Wikipedia
journal, November 2014
- Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina
- PLoS Computational Biology, Vol. 10, Issue 11
Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza
journal, November 2012
- Shaman, J.; Karspeck, A.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 50
Monitoring and prediction of an epidemic outbreak using syndromic observations
journal, November 2012
- Skvortsov, Alex; Ristic, Branko
- Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 240, Issue 1
Tracking the flu pandemic by monitoring the social web
conference, June 2010
- Lampos, Vasileios; Cristianini, Nello
- 2010 2nd International Workshop on Cognitive Information Processing (CIP)
Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings
journal, May 2009
- Fraser, C.; Donnelly, C. A.; Cauchemez, S.
- Science, Vol. 324, Issue 5934
A Survey of Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Economics and Finance
journal, May 2012
- Creal, Drew
- Econometric Reviews, Vol. 31, Issue 3
The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases
journal, January 2000
- Hethcote, Herbert W.
- SIAM Review, Vol. 42, Issue 4
Seasonal and pandemic influenza surveillance considerations for constructing multicomponent systems
journal, March 2009
- Brammer, Lynnette; Budd, Alicia; Cox, Nancy
- Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Vol. 3, Issue 2
Semi-empirical power-law scaling of new infection rate to model epidemic dynamics with inhomogeneous mixing
journal, October 2006
- Stroud, Phillip D.; Sydoriak, Stephen J.; Riese, Jane M.
- Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 203, Issue 2
Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States
journal, April 2006
- Germann, T. C.; Kadau, K.; Longini, I. M.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 103, Issue 15
Influenza Forecasting in Human Populations: A Scoping Review
journal, April 2014
- Chretien, Jean-Paul; George, Dylan; Shaman, Jeffrey
- PLoS ONE, Vol. 9, Issue 4
Human Mobility Networks, Travel Restrictions, and the Global Spread of 2009 H1N1 Pandemic
journal, January 2011
- Bajardi, Paolo; Poletto, Chiara; Ramasco, Jose J.
- PLoS ONE, Vol. 6, Issue 1
Forecasting a Moving Target: Ensemble Models for ILI Case Count Predictions
conference, April 2014
- Chakraborty, Prithwish; Khadivi, Pejman; Lewis, Bryan
- Proceedings of the 2014 SIAM International Conference on Data Mining
A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift
journal, December 2013
- Alfaro-Murillo, Jorge A.; Towers, Sherry; Feng, Zhilan
- Journal of Biological Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 1
Prediction of an Epidemic Curve: A Supervised Classification Approach
journal, January 2011
- Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Beckman, Richard; Marathe, Madhav
- Statistical Communications in Infectious Diseases, Vol. 3, Issue 1
Parameter estimation for stiff deterministic dynamical systems via ensemble Kalman filter
journal, September 2014
- Arnold, Andrea; Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki
- Inverse Problems, Vol. 30, Issue 10
Comparison of Filtering Methods for the Modeling and Retrospective Forecasting of Influenza Epidemics
text, January 2014
- Yang, Wan; Karspeck, Alicia; Shaman, Jeffrey L.
- Columbia University
Influenza Forecasting in Human Populations: A Scoping Review
text, January 2014
- Chretien, Jean-Paul; George, Dylan; Shaman, Jeffrey L.
- Columbia University
Data Assimilation: A Mathematical Introduction
book, January 2015
- Law, Kody; Stuart, Andrew; Zygalakis, Konstantinos
- Texts in Applied Mathematics
Data Driven Computing by the Morphing Fast Fourier Transform Ensemble Kalman Filter in Epidemic Spread Simulations
preprint, January 2010
- Mandel, Jan; Beezley, Jonathan D.; Cobb, Loren
- arXiv
Monitoring and prediction of an epidemic outbreak using syndromic observations
preprint, January 2011
- Skvortsov, Alex; Ristic, Branko
- arXiv
Inferring the Origin Locations of Tweets with Quantitative Confidence
text, January 2013
- Priedhorsky, Reid; Culotta, Aron; Del Valle, Sara Y.
- arXiv
Efficient Data Assimilation for Spatiotemporal Chaos: a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter
preprint, January 2005
- Hunt, Brian R.; Kostelich, Eric J.; Szunyogh, Istvan
- arXiv
Global Disease Monitoring and Forecasting with Wikipedia
journal, March 2016
- Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina
- Online Journal of Public Health Informatics, Vol. 8, Issue 1
Semi-empirical power-law scaling of new infection rate to model epidemic dynamics with inhomogeneous mixing
journal, October 2006
- Stroud, Phillip D.; Sydoriak, Stephen J.; Riese, Jane M.
- Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 203, Issue 2
Comparison of the performance of particle filter algorithms applied to tracking of a disease epidemic
journal, September 2014
- Sheinson, Daniel M.; Niemi, Jarad; Meiring, Wendy
- Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 255
A computer simulation of vaccine prioritization, allocation, and rationing during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic
journal, July 2010
- Lee, Bruce Y.; Brown, Shawn T.; Korch, George W.
- Vaccine, Vol. 28, Issue 31
Using the Kalman filter and dynamic models to assess the changing HIV/AIDS epidemic
journal, March 1997
- Cazelles, B.; Chau, N. P.
- Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 140, Issue 2
Real-time influenza forecasts during the 2012–2013 season
journal, December 2013
- Shaman, Jeffrey; Karspeck, Alicia; Yang, Wan
- Nature Communications, Vol. 4, Issue 1
Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States
journal, April 2006
- Germann, T. C.; Kadau, K.; Longini, I. M.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 103, Issue 15
Forecasting seasonal outbreaks of influenza
journal, November 2012
- Shaman, J.; Karspeck, A.
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 109, Issue 50
A Survey of Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Economics and Finance
journal, May 2012
- Creal, Drew
- Econometric Reviews, Vol. 31, Issue 3
A deterministic model for influenza infection with multiple strains and antigenic drift
journal, December 2013
- Alfaro-Murillo, Jorge A.; Towers, Sherry; Feng, Zhilan
- Journal of Biological Dynamics, Vol. 7, Issue 1
Parameter estimation for stiff deterministic dynamical systems via ensemble Kalman filter
journal, September 2014
- Arnold, Andrea; Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki
- Inverse Problems, Vol. 30, Issue 10
A systematic review of studies on forecasting the dynamics of influenza outbreaks
journal, December 2013
- Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Brownstein, John S.; Ramakrishnan, Naren
- Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Vol. 8, Issue 3
Seasonal and pandemic influenza surveillance considerations for constructing multicomponent systems
journal, March 2009
- Brammer, Lynnette; Budd, Alicia; Cox, Nancy
- Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Vol. 3, Issue 2
Pandemic Potential of a Strain of Influenza A (H1N1): Early Findings
journal, May 2009
- Fraser, C.; Donnelly, C. A.; Cauchemez, S.
- Science, Vol. 324, Issue 5934
10. Modeling the Spread of Influenza among Cities
book, January 2003
- Hyman, James M.; LaForce, Tara
- Bioterrorism: Mathematical Modeling Applications in Homeland Security
MapReduce: simplified data processing on large clusters
journal, January 2008
- Dean, Jeffrey; Ghemawat, Sanjay; Mehta, Brijesh
- Communications of the ACM, Vol. 51, Issue 1
A New Heuristic Optimization Algorithm: Harmony Search
journal, February 2001
- Zong Woo Geem, ; Loganathan, G. V.
- SIMULATION, Vol. 76, Issue 2
A Dirichlet process model for classifying and forecasting epidemic curves
journal, January 2014
- Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Leman, Scotland C.; Marathe, Madhav V.
- BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol. 14, Issue 1
The Ratio of Emergency Department Visits for ILI to Seroprevalence of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Infection, Florida, 2009
journal, January 2014
- Hopkins, Richard S.; Goodin, Kate; Kite-Powell, Aaron
- PLoS Currents
Forecasting Peaks of Seasonal Influenza Epidemics
journal, January 2013
- Nsoesie, Elaine; Mararthe, Madhav; Brownstein, John
- PLoS Currents
Comparison of Filtering Methods for the Modeling and Retrospective Forecasting of Influenza Epidemics
journal, April 2014
- Yang, Wan; Karspeck, Alicia; Shaman, Jeffrey
- PLoS Computational Biology, Vol. 10, Issue 4
Real-Time Epidemic Monitoring and Forecasting of H1N1-2009 Using Influenza-Like Illness from General Practice and Family Doctor Clinics in Singapore
journal, April 2010
- Ong, Jimmy Boon Som; Chen, Mark I-Cheng; Cook, Alex R.
- PLoS ONE, Vol. 5, Issue 4
A Simulation Optimization Approach to Epidemic Forecasting
journal, June 2013
- Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Beckman, Richard J.; Shashaani, Sara
- PLoS ONE, Vol. 8, Issue 6
Influenza Forecasting in Human Populations: A Scoping Review
journal, April 2014
- Chretien, Jean-Paul; George, Dylan; Shaman, Jeffrey
- PLoS ONE, Vol. 9, Issue 4
Prediction of an Epidemic Curve: A Supervised Classification Approach
journal, January 2011
- Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Beckman, Richard; Marathe, Madhav
- Statistical Communications in Infectious Diseases, Vol. 3, Issue 1
Data Driven Computing by the Morphing Fast Fourier Transform Ensemble Kalman Filter in Epidemic Spread Simulations
preprint, January 2010
- Mandel, Jan; Beezley, Jonathan D.; Cobb, Loren
- arXiv
Monitoring and prediction of an epidemic outbreak using syndromic observations
preprint, January 2011
- Skvortsov, Alex; Ristic, Branko
- arXiv
Efficient Data Assimilation for Spatiotemporal Chaos: a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter
preprint, January 2005
- Hunt, Brian R.; Kostelich, Eric J.; Szunyogh, Istvan
- arXiv
Global Disease Monitoring and Forecasting with Wikipedia
journal, March 2016
- Generous, Nicholas; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Deshpande, Alina
- Online Journal of Public Health Informatics, Vol. 8, Issue 1
Works referencing / citing this record:
Infectious disease prediction with kernel conditional density estimation: Infectious disease prediction with kernel conditional density estimation
journal, September 2017
- Ray, Evan L.; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Lauer, Stephen A.
- Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 36, Issue 30
Assessing the Use of Influenza Forecasts and Epidemiological Modeling in Public Health Decision Making in the United States
journal, August 2018
- Doms, Colin; Kramer, Sarah C.; Shaman, Jeffrey
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 8, Issue 1
A Smartphone-Driven Thermometer Application for Real-time Population- and Individual-Level Influenza Surveillance
journal, February 2018
- Miller, Aaron C.; Singh, Inder; Koehler, Erin
- Clinical Infectious Diseases, Vol. 67, Issue 3
Infectious Disease Surveillance in the Big Data Era: Towards Faster and Locally Relevant Systems
journal, November 2016
- Simonsen, Lone; Gog, Julia R.; Olson, Don
- Journal of Infectious Diseases, Vol. 214, Issue suppl 4
Use of daily Internet search query data improves real-time projections of influenza epidemics
journal, October 2018
- Zimmer, Christoph; Leuba, Sequoia I.; Yaesoubi, Reza
- Journal of The Royal Society Interface, Vol. 15, Issue 147
Improved real-time influenza surveillance using Internet search data in eight Latin American countries
journal, September 2018
- Clemente, Leonardo; Lu, Fred; Santillana, Mauricio
- JMIR Public Health and Surveillance
Epidemic forecasts as a tool for public health: interpretation and (re)calibration
journal, December 2017
- Moss, Robert; Fielding, James E.; Franklin, Lucinda J.
- Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health, Vol. 42, Issue 1
Influenza forecast optimization when using different surveillance data types and geographic scale
journal, August 2018
- Morita, Haruka; Kramer, Sarah; Heaney, Alexandra
- Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Vol. 12, Issue 6
The dynamics of information-driven coordination phenomena: A transfer entropy analysis
journal, April 2016
- Borge-Holthoefer, Javier; Perra, Nicola; Gonçalves, Bruno
- Science Advances, Vol. 2, Issue 4
Wikipedia traffic data and electoral prediction: towards theoretically informed models
journal, June 2016
- Yasseri, Taha; Bright, Jonathan
- EPJ Data Science, Vol. 5, Issue 1
In search of art: rapid estimates of gallery and museum visits using Google Trends
journal, June 2020
- Botta, Federico; Preis, Tobias; Moat, Helen Susannah
- EPJ Data Science, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Measuring Global Disease with Wikipedia: Success, Failure, and a Research Agenda
conference, January 2017
- Priedhorsky, Reid; Osthus, Dave; Daughton, Ashlynn R.
- Proceedings of the 2017 ACM Conference on Computer Supported Cooperative Work and Social Computing - CSCW '17
Using Participatory Web-based Surveillance Data to Improve Seasonal Influenza Forecasting in Italy
conference, April 2017
- Perrotta, Daniela; Tizzoni, Michele; Paolotti, Daniela
- WWW '17: 26th International World Wide Web Conference, Proceedings of the 26th International Conference on World Wide Web
A Comparative Study on the Prediction of Occupational Diseases in China with Hybrid Algorithm Combing Models
journal, September 2019
- Lu, Yaoqin; Yan, Huan; Zhang, Lijiang
- Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, Vol. 2019
Accurate quantification of uncertainty in epidemic parameter estimates and predictions using stochastic compartmental models
journal, November 2018
- Zimmer, Christoph; Leuba, Sequoia I.; Cohen, Ted
- Statistical Methods in Medical Research, Vol. 28, Issue 12
Results from the centers for disease control and prevention’s predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge
journal, July 2016
- Biggerstaff, Matthew; Alper, David; Dredze, Mark
- BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol. 16, Issue 1
Using electronic health records and Internet search information for accurate influenza forecasting
journal, May 2017
- Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Brownstein, John S.
- BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol. 17, Issue 1
Pharmacy students can improve access to quality medicines information by editing Wikipedia articles
journal, November 2018
- Apollonio, Dorie E.; Broyde, Keren; Azzam, Amin
- BMC Medical Education, Vol. 18, Issue 1
A comparative study on predicting influenza outbreaks using different feature spaces: application of influenza-like illness data from Early Warning Alert and Response System in Syria
journal, January 2020
- Darwish, Ali; Rahhal, Yasser; Jafar, Assef
- BMC Research Notes, Vol. 13, Issue 1
Influenza Altmetric Attention Score and its association with the influenza season in USA
journal, January 2020
- AlRyalat, Saif Aldeen; Al Oweidat, Khaled; Al-Essa, Mohammad
- F1000Research, Vol. 9
A season for all things: Phenological imprints in Wikipedia usage and their relevance to conservation
journal, March 2019
- Mittermeier, John C.; Roll, Uri; Matthews, Thomas J.
- PLOS Biology, Vol. 17, Issue 3
Prediction of infectious disease epidemics via weighted density ensembles
journal, February 2018
- Ray, Evan L.; Reich, Nicholas G.
- PLOS Computational Biology, Vol. 14, Issue 2
What to know before forecasting the flu
journal, October 2018
- Chakraborty, Prithwish; Lewis, Bryan; Eubank, Stephen
- PLOS Computational Biology, Vol. 14, Issue 10
Nonmechanistic forecasts of seasonal influenza with iterative one-week-ahead distributions
journal, June 2018
- Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon
- PLOS Computational Biology, Vol. 14, Issue 6
Even a good influenza forecasting model can benefit from internet-based nowcasts, but those benefits are limited
journal, February 2019
- Osthus, Dave; Daughton, Ashlynn R.; Priedhorsky, Reid
- PLOS Computational Biology, Vol. 15, Issue 2
Development and validation of influenza forecasting for 64 temperate and tropical countries
journal, February 2019
- Kramer, Sarah C.; Shaman, Jeffrey
- PLOS Computational Biology, Vol. 15, Issue 2
Forecasting dengue and influenza incidences using a sparse representation of Google trends, electronic health records, and time series data
journal, November 2019
- Rangarajan, Prashant; Mody, Sandeep K.; Marathe, Madhav
- PLOS Computational Biology, Vol. 15, Issue 11
Forecasting influenza in Hong Kong with Google search queries and statistical model fusion
journal, May 2017
- Xu, Qinneng; Gel, Yulia R.; Ramirez Ramirez, L. Leticia
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 12, Issue 5
Public reaction to Chikungunya outbreaks in Italy—Insights from an extensive novel data streams-based structural equation modeling analysis
journal, May 2018
- Mahroum, Naim; Adawi, Mohammad; Sharif, Kassem
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 13, Issue 5
Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries
journal, November 2019
- Choi, Soo Beom; Kim, Juhyeon; Ahn, Insung
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 14, Issue 11
Real Time Influenza Monitoring Using Hospital Big Data in Combination with Machine Learning Methods: Comparison Study
journal, January 2018
- Poirier, Canelle; Lavenu, Audrey; Bertaud, Valérie
- JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, Vol. 4, Issue 4
Improved Real-Time Influenza Surveillance: Using Internet Search Data in Eight Latin American Countries
journal, January 2019
- Clemente, Leonardo; Lu, Fred; Santillana, Mauricio
- JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, Vol. 5, Issue 2
The Application of Internet-Based Sources for Public Health Surveillance (Infoveillance): Systematic Review
journal, January 2020
- Barros, Joana M.; Duggan, Jim; Rebholz-Schuhmann, Dietrich
- Journal of Medical Internet Research, Vol. 22, Issue 3
Subregional Nowcasts of Seasonal Influenza Using Search Trends
journal, January 2017
- Kandula, Sasikiran; Hsu, Daniel; Shaman, Jeffrey
- Journal of Medical Internet Research, Vol. 19, Issue 11
Evaluating Google, Twitter, and Wikipedia as Tools for Influenza Surveillance Using Bayesian Change Point Analysis: A Comparative Analysis
journal, January 2016
- Sharpe, J. Danielle; Hopkins, Richard S.; Cook, Robert L.
- JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, Vol. 2, Issue 2
Combining Participatory Influenza Surveillance with Modeling and Forecasting: Three Alternative Approaches
journal, January 2017
- Brownstein, John S.; Chu, Shuyu; Marathe, Achla
- JMIR Public Health and Surveillance, Vol. 3, Issue 4
Observational Needs for Improving Ocean and Coupled Reanalysis, S2S Prediction, and Decadal Prediction
journal, July 2019
- Penny, Stephen G.; Akella, Santha; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.
- Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 6
Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries
journal, July 2019
- Choi, S. B.; Ahn, Kim I.
- PLOS ONE
Pharmacy students can improve access to quality medicines information by editing Wikipedia articles
text, January 2018
- Apollonio, Dorie E.; Broyde, Keren; Azzam, Amin
- BioMed Central
Subregional Nowcasts of Seasonal Influenza Using Search Trends
text, January 2017
- Kandula, Sasikiran; Hsu, Daniel Joseph; Shaman, Jeffrey L.
- Columbia University
Development and validation of influenza forecasting for 64 temperate and tropical countries
text, January 2019
- Kramer, Sarah Corinne; Shaman, Jeffrey L.
- Columbia University
Assessing the Use of Influenza Forecasts and Epidemiological Modeling in Public Health Decision Making in the United States
text, January 2018
- Doms, Colin; Kramer, Sarah Corinne; Shaman, Jeffrey L.
- Columbia University
Prediction of infectious disease epidemics via weighted density ensembles
text, January 2017
- Ray, Evan L.; Reich, Nicholas G.
- arXiv
Forecasting influenza activity using self-adaptive AI model and multi-source data in Chongqing, China
journal, September 2019
- Su, Kun; Xu, Liang; Li, Guanqiao
- EBioMedicine, Vol. 47
A statistical tool for comparing seasonal ILI surveillance data
journal, February 2019
- Ferland, René; Froda, Sorana
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Accurate regional influenza epidemics tracking using Internet search data
journal, March 2019
- Ning, Shaoyang; Yang, Shihao; Kou, S. C.
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Revisiting the use of web search data for stock market movements
journal, September 2019
- Zhong, Xu; Raghib, Michael
- Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Dynamics and biases of online attention: the case of aircraft crashes
journal, October 2016
- García-Gavilanes, Ruth; Tsvetkova, Milena; Yasseri, Taha
- Royal Society Open Science, Vol. 3, Issue 10
Influenza forecast optimization when using different surveillance data types and geographic scale
journal, August 2018
- Morita, Haruka; Kramer, Sarah; Heaney, Alexandra
- Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses, Vol. 12, Issue 6
A Comparative Study on the Prediction of Occupational Diseases in China with Hybrid Algorithm Combing Models
journal, September 2019
- Lu, Yaoqin; Yan, Huan; Zhang, Lijiang
- Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine, Vol. 2019
Results from the centers for disease control and prevention’s predict the 2013–2014 Influenza Season Challenge
journal, July 2016
- Biggerstaff, Matthew; Alper, David; Dredze, Mark
- BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol. 16, Issue 1
Using electronic health records and Internet search information for accurate influenza forecasting
journal, May 2017
- Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Brownstein, John S.
- BMC Infectious Diseases, Vol. 17, Issue 1
Early and Real-Time Detection of Seasonal Influenza Onset
journal, February 2017
- Won, Miguel; Marques-Pita, Manuel; Louro, Carlota
- PLOS Computational Biology, Vol. 13, Issue 2
What to know before forecasting the flu
journal, October 2018
- Chakraborty, Prithwish; Lewis, Bryan; Eubank, Stephen
- PLOS Computational Biology, Vol. 14, Issue 10
Nonmechanistic forecasts of seasonal influenza with iterative one-week-ahead distributions
journal, June 2018
- Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon
- PLOS Computational Biology, Vol. 14, Issue 6
Even a good influenza forecasting model can benefit from internet-based nowcasts, but those benefits are limited
journal, February 2019
- Osthus, Dave; Daughton, Ashlynn R.; Priedhorsky, Reid
- PLOS Computational Biology, Vol. 15, Issue 2
Development and validation of influenza forecasting for 64 temperate and tropical countries
journal, February 2019
- Kramer, Sarah C.; Shaman, Jeffrey
- PLOS Computational Biology, Vol. 15, Issue 2
Forecasting dengue and influenza incidences using a sparse representation of Google trends, electronic health records, and time series data
journal, November 2019
- Rangarajan, Prashant; Mody, Sandeep K.; Marathe, Madhav
- PLOS Computational Biology, Vol. 15, Issue 11
Forecasting influenza in Europe using a metapopulation model incorporating cross-border commuting and air travel
journal, October 2020
- Kramer, Sarah C.; Pei, Sen; Shaman, Jeffrey
- PLOS Computational Biology, Vol. 16, Issue 10
The Detection of Emerging Trends Using Wikipedia Traffic Data and Context Networks
journal, December 2015
- Kämpf, Mirko; Tessenow, Eric; Kenett, Dror Y.
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 10, Issue 12
Forecasting influenza in Hong Kong with Google search queries and statistical model fusion
journal, May 2017
- Xu, Qinneng; Gel, Yulia R.; Ramirez Ramirez, L. Leticia
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 12, Issue 5
Public reaction to Chikungunya outbreaks in Italy—Insights from an extensive novel data streams-based structural equation modeling analysis
journal, May 2018
- Mahroum, Naim; Adawi, Mohammad; Sharif, Kassem
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 13, Issue 5
Forecasting type-specific seasonal influenza after 26 weeks in the United States using influenza activities in other countries
journal, November 2019
- Choi, Soo Beom; Kim, Juhyeon; Ahn, Insung
- PLOS ONE, Vol. 14, Issue 11
Pharmacy students can improve access to quality medicines information by editing Wikipedia articles
text, January 2018
- Apollonio, Dorie E.; Broyde, Keren; Azzam, Amin
- BioMed Central
The Application of Internet-Based Sources for Public Health Surveillance (Infoveillance): Systematic Review
journal, January 2020
- Barros, Joana M.; Duggan, Jim; Rebholz-Schuhmann, Dietrich
- Journal of Medical Internet Research, Vol. 22, Issue 3
The dynamic of information-driven coordination phenomena: a transfer entropy analysis
text, January 2015
- Borge-Holthoefer, Javier; Perra, Nicola; Gonçalves, Bruno
- arXiv
Memory Remains: Understanding Collective Memory in the Digital Age
text, January 2016
- García-Gavilanes, Ruth; Mollgaard, Anders; Tsvetkova, Milena
- arXiv
Epidemiological data challenges: planning for a more robust future through data standards
text, January 2018
- Fairchild, Geoffrey; Tasseff, Byron; Khalsa, Hari
- arXiv
Wikipedia: a tool to monitor seasonal diseases trends?
journal, May 2017
- Vilain, Pascal; Larrieu, Sophie; Cossin, Sébastien
- Online Journal of Public Health Informatics, Vol. 9, Issue 1
Forecasting influenza epidemics by integrating internet search queries and traditional surveillance data with the support vector machine regression model in Liaoning, from 2011 to 2015
journal, June 2018
- Liang, Feng; Guan, Peng; Wu, Wei
- PeerJ, Vol. 6
Evaluation of mechanistic and statistical methods in forecasting influenza-like illness
text, January 2018
- Kandula, Sasikiran; Yamana, Teresa K.; Pei, Sen
- Columbia University