Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America
Abstract
Although Heat Waves (HWs) are expected to increase due to global warming, they are a regional phenomenon that demands for local analyses. In this paper, we assess four HW metrics (HW duration, HW frequency, HW amplitude, and number of HWs per season) as well as the share of extremely warm days (TX95, according to the 95th percentile) in South America (SA). Our analysis included observations as well as simulations from global and regional models. In particular, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to project both TX95 estimates and HW metrics according to two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that in recent decades the share of extremely warm days has at least doubled over the period December–January–February (DJF) in northern SA; less significant increases have been observed in southern SA. We also found that by midcentury, under the RCP4.5 scenario, extremely warm DJF days (as well as the number of HWs per season) are expected to increase by 5–10 times at locations close to the Equator and in the Atacama Desert. Increases are expected to bemore »
- Authors:
-
[4];
- Universidad de Santiago de Chile, (Chile); Stanford Univ., CA (United States). Dept. of Earth System Science
- Universidad de Santiago de Chile, (Chile)
- Universidad de Santiago de Chile, (Chile); Chiba Univ. (Japan). Center for Environmental Remote Sensing
- Universidad de Tarapacá, Arica (Chile)
- Universidad Técnica Federico Santa María, Valparaíso (Chile)
- Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas (Chile)
- Direccion Meteorologica de Chile, Santiago (Chile)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Stanford Univ., CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1624472
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0010687
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Scientific Reports
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 9; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2045-2322
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Science & Technology - Other Topics
Citation Formats
Feron, S., Cordero, R. R., Damiani, A., Llanillo, P. J., Jorquera, J., Sepulveda, E., Asencio, V., Laroze, D., Labbe, F., Carrasco, J., and Torres, G. Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America. United States: N. p., 2019.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41598-019-44614-4.
Feron, S., Cordero, R. R., Damiani, A., Llanillo, P. J., Jorquera, J., Sepulveda, E., Asencio, V., Laroze, D., Labbe, F., Carrasco, J., & Torres, G. Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-44614-4
Feron, S., Cordero, R. R., Damiani, A., Llanillo, P. J., Jorquera, J., Sepulveda, E., Asencio, V., Laroze, D., Labbe, F., Carrasco, J., and Torres, G. Mon .
"Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-44614-4. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1624472.
@article{osti_1624472,
title = {Observations and Projections of Heat Waves in South America},
author = {Feron, S. and Cordero, R. R. and Damiani, A. and Llanillo, P. J. and Jorquera, J. and Sepulveda, E. and Asencio, V. and Laroze, D. and Labbe, F. and Carrasco, J. and Torres, G.},
abstractNote = {Although Heat Waves (HWs) are expected to increase due to global warming, they are a regional phenomenon that demands for local analyses. In this paper, we assess four HW metrics (HW duration, HW frequency, HW amplitude, and number of HWs per season) as well as the share of extremely warm days (TX95, according to the 95th percentile) in South America (SA). Our analysis included observations as well as simulations from global and regional models. In particular, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), and Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to project both TX95 estimates and HW metrics according to two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We found that in recent decades the share of extremely warm days has at least doubled over the period December–January–February (DJF) in northern SA; less significant increases have been observed in southern SA. We also found that by midcentury, under the RCP4.5 scenario, extremely warm DJF days (as well as the number of HWs per season) are expected to increase by 5–10 times at locations close to the Equator and in the Atacama Desert. Increases are expected to be less pronounced in southern SA. Projections under the RCP8.5 scenario are more striking, particularly in tropical areas where half or more of the days could be extremely warm by midcentury.},
doi = {10.1038/s41598-019-44614-4},
journal = {Scientific Reports},
number = 1,
volume = 9,
place = {United States},
year = {Mon Jun 03 00:00:00 EDT 2019},
month = {Mon Jun 03 00:00:00 EDT 2019}
}
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Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities
journal, February 2018
- Guerreiro, Selma B.; Dawson, Richard J.; Kilsby, Chris
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 3
Extreme heat waves under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming
journal, April 2018
- Dosio, Alessandro; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Fischer, Erich M.
- Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 5
Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia
journal, August 2017
- Im, Eun-Soon; Pal, Jeremy S.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.
- Science Advances, Vol. 3, Issue 8
Projections of Heat Waves Events in the Intra-Americas Region Using Multimodel Ensemble
journal, January 2018
- Angeles-Malaspina, Moises; González-Cruz, Jorge E.; Ramírez-Beltran, Nazario
- Advances in Meteorology, Vol. 2018
Bias patterns and climate change signals in GCM-RCM model chains
text, January 2018
- Sørland, Silje L.; Schär, Christoph; Lüthi, Daniel
- ETH Zurich
DNest4: Diffusive Nested Sampling in C++ and Python
preprint, January 2016
- Brewer, Brendon J.; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel
- arXiv
The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate
journal, January 2013
- Bentsen, M.; Bethke, I.; Debernard, J. B.
- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 6, Issue 3
Magnitude and frequency of heat and cold waves in recent decades: the case of South America
journal, January 2016
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Climate change projections for CORDEX-Africa with COSMO-CLM regional climate model and differences with the driving global climate models
text, January 2016
- Dosio, A.; Panitz, H. -J.
- Karlsruhe
Temperature and humidity based projections of a rapid rise in global heat stress exposure during the 21st century
text, January 2017
- Coffel, Ethan; Horton, Radley M.; De Sherbinin, Alexander M.
- Columbia University
Works referencing / citing this record:
Contrasting regional and global climate simulations over South Asia
journal, January 2020
- Rana, Arun; Nikulin, Grigory; Kjellström, Erik
- Climate Dynamics, Vol. 54, Issue 5-6