Title: SSP‐Based Land‐Use Change Scenarios: A Critical Uncertainty in Future Regional Climate Change Projections

Abstract

Abstract To better understand the role projected land‐use changes (LUCs) may play in future regional climate projections, we assess the combined effects of greenhouse‐gas (GHG)‐forced climate change and LUCs in regional climate model (RCM) simulations. To do so, we produced RCM simulations that are complementary to the North‐American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA‐CORDEX) simulations, but with future LUCs that are consistent with particular Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and related to a specific Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). We examine the state of the climate at the end of the 21st century with and without two urban and agricultural LUC scenarios that follow SSP3 and SSP5 using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model forced by one global climate model, the MPI‐ESM, under the RCP8.5 scenario. We find that LUCs following different societal trends under the SSPs can significantly affect climate projections in different ways. In regions of significant cropland expansion over previously forested area, projected annual mean temperature increases are diminished by around 0.5°C–1.0°C. Across all seasons, where urbanization is high, projected temperature increases are magnified. In particular, summer mean temperature projections are up to 4°C–5°C greater and minimum and maximum temperature projections are increased by 2.5°C–6°C, amounts that are onmore » par with the warming due to GHG‐forced climate change. Warming is also enhanced in the urban surroundings. Future urbanization also has a large influence on precipitation projections during summer, increasing storm intensity, event length, and the overall amount over urbanized areas, and decreasing precipitation in surrounding areas.« less

Authors:

Bukovsky, Melissa S.  ^[1];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Bukovsky, Melissa S."
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0001-6415-965X"

Gao, Jing  ^[2];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Gao, Jing"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0003-1778-8909"

Mearns, Linda O. ^[1]; O'Neill, Brian C. ^[3]

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Regional Integrated Sciences Collective Computational and Information Systems Laboratory and Research Applications Laboratory National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder CO USA
2. Department of Geography and Spatial Sciences &, Data Science Institute University of Delaware Newark DE USA
3. Pardee Center for International Futures &, Josef Korbel School of International Studies University of Denver Denver CO USA

Publication Date:

Thu Mar 25 00:00:00 EDT 2021

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE

OSTI Identifier:

1772688

Alternate Identifier(s):

OSTI ID: 1780560

Grant/Contract Number:  

DE‐SC0016438

Resource Type:

Published Article

Journal Name:

Earth's Future

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Name: Earth's Future Journal Volume: 9 Journal Issue: 3; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277

Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English