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Title: Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations

Abstract

We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoonmore » regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE
OSTI Identifier:
1631905
Alternate Identifier(s):
OSTI ID: 1633163
Grant/Contract Number:  
3NOA31MA; GRF16309719; AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Published Article
Journal Name:
Climate Dynamics
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Name: Climate Dynamics; Journal ID: ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher:
Springer Science + Business Media
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Citation Formats

Ashfaq, Moetasim, Cavazos, Tereza, Reboita, Michelle Simões, Torres-Alavez, José Abraham, Im, Eun-Soon, Olusegun, Christiana Funmilola, Alves, Lincoln, Key, Kesondra, Adeniyi, Mojisola O., Tall, Moustapha, Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba, Mehmood, Shahid, Zafar, Qudsia, Das, Sushant, Diallo, Ismaila, Coppola, Erika, and Giorgi, Filippo. Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2.
Ashfaq, Moetasim, Cavazos, Tereza, Reboita, Michelle Simões, Torres-Alavez, José Abraham, Im, Eun-Soon, Olusegun, Christiana Funmilola, Alves, Lincoln, Key, Kesondra, Adeniyi, Mojisola O., Tall, Moustapha, Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba, Mehmood, Shahid, Zafar, Qudsia, Das, Sushant, Diallo, Ismaila, Coppola, Erika, & Giorgi, Filippo. Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations. United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2
Ashfaq, Moetasim, Cavazos, Tereza, Reboita, Michelle Simões, Torres-Alavez, José Abraham, Im, Eun-Soon, Olusegun, Christiana Funmilola, Alves, Lincoln, Key, Kesondra, Adeniyi, Mojisola O., Tall, Moustapha, Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba, Mehmood, Shahid, Zafar, Qudsia, Das, Sushant, Diallo, Ismaila, Coppola, Erika, and Giorgi, Filippo. Thu . "Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations". United States. doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2.
@article{osti_1631905,
title = {Robust late twenty-first century shift in the regional monsoons in RegCM-CORDEX simulations},
author = {Ashfaq, Moetasim and Cavazos, Tereza and Reboita, Michelle Simões and Torres-Alavez, José Abraham and Im, Eun-Soon and Olusegun, Christiana Funmilola and Alves, Lincoln and Key, Kesondra and Adeniyi, Mojisola O. and Tall, Moustapha and Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba and Mehmood, Shahid and Zafar, Qudsia and Das, Sushant and Diallo, Ismaila and Coppola, Erika and Giorgi, Filippo},
abstractNote = {We use an unprecedented ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections over seven regional CORDEX domains to provide, for the first time, an RCM-based global view of monsoon changes at various levels of increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. All regional simulations are conducted using RegCM4 at a 25 km horizontal grid spacing using lateral and lower boundary forcing from three General Circulation Models (GCMs), which are part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5). Each simulation covers the period from 1970 through 2100 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Regional climate simulations exhibit high fidelity in capturing key characteristics of precipitation and atmospheric dynamics across monsoon regions in the historical period. In the future period, regional monsoons exhibit a spatially robust delay in the monsoon onset, an increase in seasonality, and a reduction in the rainy season length at higher levels of radiative forcing. All regions with substantial delays in the monsoon onset exhibit a decrease in pre-monsoon precipitation, indicating a strong connection between pre-monsoon drying and a shift in the monsoon onset. The weakening of latent heat driven atmospheric warming during the pre-monsoon period delays the overturning of atmospheric subsidence in the monsoon regions, which defers their transitioning into deep convective states. Monsoon changes under the RCP2.6 scenario are mostly within the baseline variability.},
doi = {10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2},
journal = {Climate Dynamics},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {6}
}

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05306-2

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