The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends
Abstract
Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations and model experiments, we find that, contrary to the uniform positive trend in climate simulations, the observed Arctic AR frequency increases by twice as much over the Atlantic sector compared to the Pacific sector in 1981-2021. This discrepancy can be reconciled by the observed positive-to-negative phase shift of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the negative-to-positive phase shift of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which increase and reduce Arctic ARs over the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, respectively. Removing the influence of the IPO and AMO can reduce the projection uncertainties in near-future Arctic AR trends by about 24%, which is important for constraining projection of Arctic warming and the timing of an ice-free Arctic.
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 2320297
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 2322505
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-190165
Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723; 2135; PII: 45159
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830; AC02-05CH11231; AGS-2232581; 80NSSC21K1522; SES−1754740
- Resource Type:
- Published Article
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Volume: 15 Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United Kingdom
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; atmospheric dynamics; attribution; projection and prediction
Citation Formats
Ma, Weiming, Wang, Hailong, Chen, Gang, Leung, L. Ruby, Lu, Jian, Rasch, Philip J., Fu, Qiang, Kravitz, Ben, Zou, Yufei, Cassano, John J., and Maslowski, Wieslaw. The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends. United Kingdom: N. p., 2024.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5.
Ma, Weiming, Wang, Hailong, Chen, Gang, Leung, L. Ruby, Lu, Jian, Rasch, Philip J., Fu, Qiang, Kravitz, Ben, Zou, Yufei, Cassano, John J., & Maslowski, Wieslaw. The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends. United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5
Ma, Weiming, Wang, Hailong, Chen, Gang, Leung, L. Ruby, Lu, Jian, Rasch, Philip J., Fu, Qiang, Kravitz, Ben, Zou, Yufei, Cassano, John J., and Maslowski, Wieslaw. Fri .
"The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends". United Kingdom. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5.
@article{osti_2320297,
title = {The role of interdecadal climate oscillations in driving Arctic atmospheric river trends},
author = {Ma, Weiming and Wang, Hailong and Chen, Gang and Leung, L. Ruby and Lu, Jian and Rasch, Philip J. and Fu, Qiang and Kravitz, Ben and Zou, Yufei and Cassano, John J. and Maslowski, Wieslaw},
abstractNote = {Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs), intrusions of warm and moist air, can effectively drive weather extremes over the Arctic and trigger subsequent impact on sea ice and climate. What controls the observed multi-decadal Arctic AR trends remains unclear. Here, using multiple sources of observations and model experiments, we find that, contrary to the uniform positive trend in climate simulations, the observed Arctic AR frequency increases by twice as much over the Atlantic sector compared to the Pacific sector in 1981-2021. This discrepancy can be reconciled by the observed positive-to-negative phase shift of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and the negative-to-positive phase shift of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which increase and reduce Arctic ARs over the Atlantic and Pacific sectors, respectively. Removing the influence of the IPO and AMO can reduce the projection uncertainties in near-future Arctic AR trends by about 24%, which is important for constraining projection of Arctic warming and the timing of an ice-free Arctic.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-024-45159-5},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 15,
place = {United Kingdom},
year = {Fri Mar 08 00:00:00 EST 2024},
month = {Fri Mar 08 00:00:00 EST 2024}
}
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