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Title: Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

Abstract

Globally averaged surface air temperatures in some decades reflect rapid increases (accelerated warming decades), and in other decades there is no warming trend (hiatus decades). A previous report showed that the net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere of about 1 W m–2 is associated with greater increases of deep ocean heat content below 750 m during the hiatus decades, while there is little globally averaged surface temperature increase or warming in the upper ocean layers. Here the authors observe processes involved with accelerated warming decades and address the relative roles of external forcing from increasing greenhouse gases and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Model results from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), show that accelerated warming decades are characterized by rapid warming of globally averaged surface air temperature, greater increases of heat content in the upper ocean layers, and less heat content increase in the deep ocean, opposite to the hiatus decades. In addition to contributions from processes potentially linked to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the positive phase of the IPO, adding to the response to external forcing, is usually associatedmore » with accelerated warming decades. Conversely, hiatus decades typically occur with the negative phase of the IPO, when warming from the external forcing is overwhelmed by internally generated cooling in the tropical Pacific. Internally generated hiatus periods of up to 15 years with zero global warming trend are present in the future climate simulations. This suggests that there is a chance that the current observed hiatus could extend for several more years.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [1];  [2];  [1];  [1]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1565088
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Journal of Climate
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 26; Journal Issue: 18; Journal ID: ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological Society
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Pacific decadal oscillation; Climate models; Coupled models; Decadal variability

Citation Formats

Meehl, Gerald A., Hu, Aixue, Arblaster, Julie M., Fasullo, John, and Trenberth, Kevin E. Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. United States: N. p., 2013. Web. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00548.1.
Meehl, Gerald A., Hu, Aixue, Arblaster, Julie M., Fasullo, John, & Trenberth, Kevin E. Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. United States. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00548.1.
Meehl, Gerald A., Hu, Aixue, Arblaster, Julie M., Fasullo, John, and Trenberth, Kevin E. Mon . "Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation". United States. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00548.1. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1565088.
@article{osti_1565088,
title = {Externally Forced and Internally Generated Decadal Climate Variability Associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation},
author = {Meehl, Gerald A. and Hu, Aixue and Arblaster, Julie M. and Fasullo, John and Trenberth, Kevin E.},
abstractNote = {Globally averaged surface air temperatures in some decades reflect rapid increases (accelerated warming decades), and in other decades there is no warming trend (hiatus decades). A previous report showed that the net energy imbalance at the top of the atmosphere of about 1 W m–2 is associated with greater increases of deep ocean heat content below 750 m during the hiatus decades, while there is little globally averaged surface temperature increase or warming in the upper ocean layers. Here the authors observe processes involved with accelerated warming decades and address the relative roles of external forcing from increasing greenhouse gases and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO). Model results from the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), show that accelerated warming decades are characterized by rapid warming of globally averaged surface air temperature, greater increases of heat content in the upper ocean layers, and less heat content increase in the deep ocean, opposite to the hiatus decades. In addition to contributions from processes potentially linked to Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) formation and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the positive phase of the IPO, adding to the response to external forcing, is usually associated with accelerated warming decades. Conversely, hiatus decades typically occur with the negative phase of the IPO, when warming from the external forcing is overwhelmed by internally generated cooling in the tropical Pacific. Internally generated hiatus periods of up to 15 years with zero global warming trend are present in the future climate simulations. This suggests that there is a chance that the current observed hiatus could extend for several more years.},
doi = {10.1175/jcli-d-12-00548.1},
journal = {Journal of Climate},
number = 18,
volume = 26,
place = {United States},
year = {2013},
month = {9}
}

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journal, October 2019


Observed and hindcasted subdecadal variability of the tropical Pacific climate
journal, February 2019


Response to Comment on "Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures"
journal, December 2015


Has there been a hiatus?
journal, August 2015


Implication of tropical lower stratospheric cooling in recent trends in tropical circulation and deep convective activity
journal, January 2019

  • Kodera, Kunihiko; Eguchi, Nawo; Ueyama, Rei
  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 19, Issue 4
  • DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-2655-2019

Comparison of land surface humidity between observations and CMIP5 models
journal, January 2017

  • Dunn, Robert J. H.; Willett, Kate M.; Ciavarella, Andrew
  • Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 8, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.5194/esd-8-719-2017

Climate model configurations of the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS cycle 43r1) for HighResMIP
journal, January 2018

  • Roberts, Christopher D.; Senan, Retish; Molteni, Franco
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 11, Issue 9
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-3681-2018

CAM6 simulation of mean and extreme precipitation over Asia: sensitivity to upgraded physical parameterizations and higher horizontal resolution
journal, January 2019

  • Lin, Lei; Gettelman, Andrew; Xu, Yangyang
  • Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.5194/gmd-12-3773-2019

Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices
journal, January 2014


El Niño, La Niña, and the global sea level budget
journal, January 2016


Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation reconstructed from trans-Pacific tree rings: 1350–2004 CE
text, January 2019

  • Buckley, Brendan M.; Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; D'Arrigo, Rosanne Dorothy
  • Columbia University
  • DOI: 10.7916/d8-cy2j-4609