Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

doi:10.1002/2017gl076468

Title: Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

Journal Article · Sun Jan 28 19:00:00 EST 2018 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl076468 · OSTI ID:1537310

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NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); DOE/OSTI
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.
NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)

An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979–2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

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Research Organization:: Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States); Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012549; SC0014423

OSTI ID:: 1537310

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 45; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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How accurately can the climate sensitivity to $$\hbox {CO}_{2}$$CO2 be estimated from historical climate change? Gregory, J. M.; Andrews, T.; Ceppi, P. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 54, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04991-y	journal	October 2019
Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl077904	journal	May 2018
Accounting for Changing Temperature Patterns Increases Historical Estimates of Climate Sensitivity Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Paynter, David Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 45, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018gl078887	journal	August 2018
An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability Dessler, A. E.; Forster, P. M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd028481	journal	August 2018
Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 °C warming Smith, Christopher J.; Forster, Piers M.; Allen, Myles Nature Communications, Vol. 10, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-07999-w	journal	January 2019
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Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5 degrees C warming Smith, Christopher J.; Forster, Piers M.; Allen, Myles ETH Zurich https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000319137	text	January 2019
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