On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback
Abstract
Abstract We investigate the dependence of radiative feedback on the pattern of sea‐surface temperature (SST) change in 14 Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) forced with observed variations in SST and sea‐ice over the historical record from 1871 to near‐present. We find that over 1871–1980, the Earth warmed with feedbacks largely consistent and strongly correlated with long‐term climate sensitivity feedbacks (diagnosed from corresponding atmosphere‐ocean GCM abrupt‐4xCO2 simulations). Post 1980, however, the Earth warmed with unusual trends in tropical Pacific SSTs (enhanced warming in the west, cooling in the east) and cooling in the Southern Ocean that drove climate feedback to be uncorrelated with—and indicating much lower climate sensitivity than—that expected for long‐term CO 2 increase. We show that these conclusions are not strongly dependent on the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) II SST data set used to force the AGCMs, though the magnitude of feedback post 1980 is generally smaller in nine AGCMs forced with alternative HadISST1 SST boundary conditions. We quantify a “pattern effect” (defined as the difference between historical and long‐term CO 2 feedback) equal to 0.48 ± 0.47 [5%–95%] W m −2 K −1 for the time‐period 1871–2010 when the AGCMs are forced with HadISST1 SSTs, or 0.70 ± 0.47 [5%–95%] W m −2more »
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- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
- Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
- Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States)
- Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
- Princeton Univ., NJ (United States)
- Univ. of Stockholm (Sweden)
- Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC (Canada)
- National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
- Univ. of Miami, Coral Gables, FL (United States); Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
- Univ.de Toulouse Météo‐France CNRS (France)
- Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba (Japan)
- Meteorological Research Institute Japan Meteorological Agency Tsukuba Japan
- École Polytechnique, Paris (France)
- Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom)
- Guangdong Ocean Univ., Zhanjiang (China)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1891515
- Alternate Identifier(s):
- OSTI ID: 1889755
- Grant/Contract Number:
- SC0022070; DE‐SC0022070
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 127; Journal Issue: 18; Journal ID: ISSN 2169-897X
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical Union
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Andrews, Timothy, Bodas‐Salcedo, Alejandro, Gregory, Jonathan M., Dong, Yue, Armour, Kyle C., Paynter, David, Lin, Pu, Modak, Angshuman, Mauritsen, Thorsten, Cole, Jason N. S., Medeiros, Brian, Benedict, James J., Douville, Hervé, Roehrig, Romain, Koshiro, Tsuyoshi, Kawai, Hideaki, Ogura, Tomoo, Dufresne, Jean‐Louis, Allan, Richard P., and Liu, Chunlei. On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback. United States: N. p., 2022.
Web. doi:10.1029/2022jd036675.
Andrews, Timothy, Bodas‐Salcedo, Alejandro, Gregory, Jonathan M., Dong, Yue, Armour, Kyle C., Paynter, David, Lin, Pu, Modak, Angshuman, Mauritsen, Thorsten, Cole, Jason N. S., Medeiros, Brian, Benedict, James J., Douville, Hervé, Roehrig, Romain, Koshiro, Tsuyoshi, Kawai, Hideaki, Ogura, Tomoo, Dufresne, Jean‐Louis, Allan, Richard P., & Liu, Chunlei. On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036675
Andrews, Timothy, Bodas‐Salcedo, Alejandro, Gregory, Jonathan M., Dong, Yue, Armour, Kyle C., Paynter, David, Lin, Pu, Modak, Angshuman, Mauritsen, Thorsten, Cole, Jason N. S., Medeiros, Brian, Benedict, James J., Douville, Hervé, Roehrig, Romain, Koshiro, Tsuyoshi, Kawai, Hideaki, Ogura, Tomoo, Dufresne, Jean‐Louis, Allan, Richard P., and Liu, Chunlei. Fri .
"On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd036675. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1891515.
@article{osti_1891515,
title = {On the Effect of Historical SST Patterns on Radiative Feedback},
author = {Andrews, Timothy and Bodas‐Salcedo, Alejandro and Gregory, Jonathan M. and Dong, Yue and Armour, Kyle C. and Paynter, David and Lin, Pu and Modak, Angshuman and Mauritsen, Thorsten and Cole, Jason N. S. and Medeiros, Brian and Benedict, James J. and Douville, Hervé and Roehrig, Romain and Koshiro, Tsuyoshi and Kawai, Hideaki and Ogura, Tomoo and Dufresne, Jean‐Louis and Allan, Richard P. and Liu, Chunlei},
abstractNote = {Abstract We investigate the dependence of radiative feedback on the pattern of sea‐surface temperature (SST) change in 14 Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) forced with observed variations in SST and sea‐ice over the historical record from 1871 to near‐present. We find that over 1871–1980, the Earth warmed with feedbacks largely consistent and strongly correlated with long‐term climate sensitivity feedbacks (diagnosed from corresponding atmosphere‐ocean GCM abrupt‐4xCO2 simulations). Post 1980, however, the Earth warmed with unusual trends in tropical Pacific SSTs (enhanced warming in the west, cooling in the east) and cooling in the Southern Ocean that drove climate feedback to be uncorrelated with—and indicating much lower climate sensitivity than—that expected for long‐term CO 2 increase. We show that these conclusions are not strongly dependent on the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) II SST data set used to force the AGCMs, though the magnitude of feedback post 1980 is generally smaller in nine AGCMs forced with alternative HadISST1 SST boundary conditions. We quantify a “pattern effect” (defined as the difference between historical and long‐term CO 2 feedback) equal to 0.48 ± 0.47 [5%–95%] W m −2 K −1 for the time‐period 1871–2010 when the AGCMs are forced with HadISST1 SSTs, or 0.70 ± 0.47 [5%–95%] W m −2 K −1 when forced with AMIP II SSTs. Assessed changes in the Earth's historical energy budget agree with the AGCM feedback estimates. Furthermore satellite observations of changes in top‐of‐atmosphere radiative fluxes since 1985 suggest that the pattern effect was particularly strong over recent decades but may be waning post 2014.},
doi = {10.1029/2022jd036675},
journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres},
number = 18,
volume = 127,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Aug 19 00:00:00 EDT 2022},
month = {Fri Aug 19 00:00:00 EDT 2022}
}
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- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 15
Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus
journal, June 2013
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- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 12
The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)
journal, February 2020
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- Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 12, Issue 2
Connecting tropical climate change with Southern Ocean heat uptake: Tropical Climate Change and SO Heat Uptake
journal, September 2017
- Hwang, Yen-Ting; Xie, Shang-Ping; Deser, Clara
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 18
The Canadian Earth System Model version 5 (CanESM5.0.3)
journal, January 2019
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- Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 12, Issue 11
On the interpretation of constrained climate model ensembles: ENSEMBLE INTERPRETATION
journal, August 2012
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- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 16
Time-Varying Climate Sensitivity from Regional Feedbacks
journal, July 2013
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Variation in climate sensitivity and feedback parameters during the historical period: VARIATION IN CLIMATE SENSITIVITY
journal, April 2016
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