A climatic analysis of selected boreal tree species, and potential responses to global climate change

Conference · Wed Dec 01 04:00:00 EST 1993 · World Resource Review; (United States)

OSTI ID:7146203

Mackey, B G; Sims, R A ^[1]

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1. Forestry Canada, Sault St. Marie, Ontario (Canada)

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) are mathematically-based predictors that typically operate at a relatively coarse level of resolution and project the likely response of biophysical systems under global warming scenarios. An important research problem is how best to represent GCM output at finer levels of resolution for regional forest management planning and other types of land use decision-making. This paper demonstrates, using a case example from northwestern Ontario, how an analytical geographic information system may integrate Global Circulation Model (GCM) output and forest stand level information (such as that derived from Forest Stand Simulator Models). Interpolations on forest survey plot data are made on a GIS climate surface derived from a 400m grid Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for the area. Temperature of the warmest quarter (TWQ) is used to represent thermal domains for three tree species (black spruce, red pine and large toothed aspen) in northwestern Ontario. Analyses were conducted in 4 stages: (1) response for the 3 species were defined for TWQ; (2) the climate data was spatially extended onto the DEM; (3) the Canadian Climate Centre GCM was used to construct a scenario for potential climate change (2x CO[sub 2] and 1.5x CO[sub 2] increases); and, (4) a maximum likelihood probability was applied to the TWQ functions for each species and resulting probabilities were mapped.

• OSTI ID: 7146203
• Report Number(s): CONF-930415--
• Conference Information: Journal Name: World Resource Review; (United States) Journal Volume: 5:4
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540120* -- Environment
Atmospheric-- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport-- (1990-)
540210 -- Environment
Terrestrial-- Basic Studies-- (1990-)
BOREAL REGIONS
CANADA
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON DIOXIDE
CARBON OXIDES
CHALCOGENIDES
CLIMATIC CHANGE
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
FORESTRY
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
GROWTH
INFORMATION SYSTEMS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NORTH AMERICA
ONTARIO
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
PLANT GROWTH
PLANTS
TREES