General circulation model output for forest climate change research and applications

Technical Report · Sun Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1992

OSTI ID:6755346

Cooter, E J; Eder, B K; LeDuc, S K; Truppi, L

General Circulation Models (GCMs) have projected global warming of from 3 to 8 degrees F to take place over a period of from 50 to 100 years. The Forest Service Southern Global Change Program (SGCP) has proposed the use of GCM output as input to forest assessment models to estimate the potential impacts of climate changes on forests of the South and Southeastern U.S. The report reviews, organizes, summarizes and makes recommendations concerning the use of four climate model projections in forest assessments. Some primary sources of inter-model variability include model version (age), numerical solution technique, time and space resolution and parameterization schemes. Model version generally impacts the time and space resolution and choice of parameterization schemes. Magnitude of change varies widely, but the four GCMs examined here all project warmer air temperatures and higher humidities throughout the year, decreasing cloud cover during the Fall, Winter and Spring seasons and increasing summertime precipitation for the South and Southeastern U.S. Although some consensus among models over large geographic regions can be identified, there is, as yet, no established means of determining the confidence that can be placed in these outlooks. GCM output should be combined with historical case studies, empirical and semi-empirically constructed climate scenarios to provide a range of possible climatological futures.

• Research Organization: Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States). Atmospheric Research and Exposure Assessment Lab.
• OSTI ID: 6755346
• Report Number(s): PB-93-124626/XAB; EPA--600/R-92/217
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290301 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Environment
Health
& Safety-- Regional & Global Environmental Aspects-- (1992-)
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
540110*
CLIMATIC CHANGE
CLOUD COVER
DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS
FORECASTING
FORESTS
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
HUMIDITY
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NORTH AMERICA
PRECIPITATION
SEASONAL VARIATIONS
SEASONS
SEPARATION PROCESSES
US DOA
US FOREST SERVICE
US ORGANIZATIONS
USA
VARIATIONS