Modeling Transient Response of Forests to Climate Change

Journal Article · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 2010 · Science of the Total Environment, The

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.050· OSTI ID:988741

Dale, Virginia H ^[1]; Tharp, M Lynn ^[1]; Lannom, Karen O. ^[2]; Hodges, Donald G ^[1]

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1. ORNL
2. University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

Our hypothesis is that a high diversity of dominant life forms in Tennessee forests conveys resilience to disturbance such as climate change. Because of uncertainty in climate change and their effects, three climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to simulate a range of potential climate conditions for the state. These climate changes derive from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B storyline that assumes rapid global economic growth. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in five ecological provinces using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation differences from the long-term average are more complex but less striking. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions for five ecological provinces from 1989 to 2300. Average output projects changes in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces in Tennessee with the greatest changes in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Projected declines in total tree biomass are followed by biomass recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The Southern Mixed Forest province results in less diversity in dominant trees as well as lower overall biomass than projections for the other four provinces. The biomass and composition changes projected in this study differ from forest dynamics expected without climate change. These results suggest that biomass recovery following climate change is linked to dominant tree diversity in the southeastern forest of the US. The generality of this observation warrants further investigation, for it relates to ways that forest management may influence climate change effects.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)
• Sponsoring Organization: EE USDOE - Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EE)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 988741
• Journal Information: Science of the Total Environment, The, Journal Name: Science of the Total Environment, The Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 408; ISSN 0048-9697
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

09 BIOMASS FUELS
BIOMASS
CLIMATES
CLIMATIC CHANGE
DISTURBANCES
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
ECOSYSTEMS
FORESTS
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
HYPOTHESIS
MANAGEMENT
PRECIPITATION
SIMULATION
TENNESSEE
TRANSIENTS
TREES