Effects of Projected Transient Changes in Climate on Tennessee Forests

Journal Article · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 2010 · Science of the Total Environment, The

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2009.11.050· OSTI ID:985743

Dale, Virginia H ^[1]; Tharp, M Lynn ^[1]; Lannom, Karen O. ^[2]; Hodges, Donald G. ^[2]

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1. ORNL
2. University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

This study examines transient effects of projected climate change on the structure and species composition of forests in Tennessee. The climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2080 were provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) from three General Circulation Models (GCMs) that simulate the range of potential climate conditions for the state. The precipitation and temperature projections from the three GCMs for 2030 and 2080 were related to changes in the ecoregions by using the monthly record of temperature and precipitation from 1980 to 1997 for each 1 km cell across the state as aggregated into the five ecological provinces. Temperatures are projected to increase in all ecological provinces in all months for all three GCMs for both 2030 and 2080. Precipitation patterns are more complex with one model projecting wetter summers and two models projecting drier summers. The forest ecosystem model LINKAGES was used to simulate conditions in forest stands for the five ecological provinces of Tennessee from 1989 to 2300. These model runs suggest there will be a change in tree diversity and species composition in all ecological provinces with the greatest changes occurring in the Southern Mixed Forest province. Most projections show a decline in total tree biomass followed by recovery as species replacement occurs in stands. The changes in forest biomass and composition, as simulated in this study, are likely to have implications on forest economy, tourism, understory conditions, wildlife habitat, mast provisioning, and other services provided by forest systems.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)
• Sponsoring Organization: ORNL work for others
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 985743
• Journal Information: Science of the Total Environment, The, Journal Name: Science of the Total Environment, The Journal Issue: 8 Vol. 408; ISSN 0048-9697
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

09 BIOMASS FUELS
BIOMASS
CLIMATES
ECOSYSTEMS
FORESTS
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
HABITAT
PRECIPITATION
TOURISM
TRANSIENTS
TREES
climate change
ecosystem model
effects of global warming
southeastern forests