Short-term energy outlook

Technical Report · Sat Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1980

OSTI ID:6610662

Chapter 2 of this report contains three distinctive supply-and-demand balances for the US petroleum markets through 1981. The cases differ primarily with respect to the world price of crude oil and the management of US petroleum inventories. Case 1 assumes that the nominal world price of crude oil increases at the rate of inflation in the US. This is equivalent to the assumption that real world oil prices, i.e., world oil prices adjusted to reflect the general US rate of inflation, remain constant. Case 2 assumes that there is an increase in the real world price of crude oil of $8 per barrel during the first 4 months of 1981, and that US inventories of crude oil and petroleum products are reduced from their currently high levels in the first half of 1981. Case 3 assumes a $16 per barrel increase in the real world price of crude oil the first 4 months of 1981, plus increases in real refiner and retailer margins. The methodology used takes account of the effects of world oil prices, in the alternative cases on the level of economic activity which, in turn, affects demands for the various energy products. The fully integrated forecasting system used can show the effects of economic activity, prices, and domestic energy production upon US energy supply and demand balances, including inventories. Chapter 3 covers the treatment of uncertainty in short-term projections. Chapter 4 covers projections for major energy sources and fuels (total petroleum, petroleum imports, motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil and other petroleum products, natural gas, coal, electric power, total energy, and a comparison with alternative forecasts). A glossary is included.

• Research Organization: USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC. Short-Term Analysis Div.
• OSTI ID: 6610662
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0202/5
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
COAL
DATA
DATA COMPILATION
DEGREE DAYS
DEMAND FACTORS
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY SOURCES
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
IMPORTS
INCOME
INFLATION
INFORMATION
INVENTORIES
MATERIALS
NATURAL GAS
NORTH AMERICA
NUMERICAL DATA
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
POWER
PRICES
PRODUCTION
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TAXES
USA
WEATHER
WINDFALL PROFITS TAX