Annual Energy Outlook, 1984 with projections to 1995. [Contains glossary]

Technical Report · Fri Jan 18 04:00:00 EST 1985

OSTI ID:6179622

This year's Annual Energy Outlook contains a range of projections of energy supply, demand, and prices annually for 1985 through 1990 and for 1995. Between 1985 and 1990 the base case projections show no dramatic change in the US energy situation. Alternative assumptions produce relatively small changes in results for 1990. Between 1990 and 1995, the base case projections for US energy supply and demand still exhibit stability, but with some assumed increases in real world oil prices and increased dependence on petroleum imports. Under different assumptions about factors affecting oil supply and demand, the results for energy markets after 1990 vary widely. By 1990, net imports of crude oil and petroleum products to the United States are projected to be about one and one-half times the 1983 level, and by 1995 net imports in the base case are projected to be about twice the 1983 level, or about the same as the import level in 1978. Energy demand in the base case is projected to rise at about two-thirds the rate of increase in the real gross national product (GNP) throughout the forecast period. Real crude oil prices are assumed to decline through 1985, remain about constant between 1986 and 1987, and return by 1990 to approximately the level prevailing in 1984. After 1990, real crude oil prices in the base case are assumed to increase again. Recent declines in the oil price substantiate the view that the world petroleum market is becoming determined more by market conditions and less by OPEC strategies. Real natural gas prices are projected to remain about constant through 1986 and then increase gradually through 1990. After 1990 natural gas

• Research Organization: USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC. Office of Energy Markets and End Use
• OSTI ID: 6179622
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0383(84); ON: DE85007089
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT
015000 -- Coal
Lignite
& Peat-- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects
02 PETROLEUM
020700 -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
03 NATURAL GAS
030600 -- Natural Gas-- Economic
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
298000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Consumption & Utilization