Short-Term Energy Outlook. Quarterly projections, July 1985. [1985-1986]

Technical Report · Thu Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1985

OSTI ID:5382532

The forecasts are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model uses two principal driving variables: a macroeconomic forecast and the world oil price assumptions. The three projections for petroleum supply and demand are based on low, middle, and high economic growth scenarios which incorporate high, middle, and low crude oil price trajectories. The discussion and tables in this volume primarily refer to the middle, or base case, scenario and, unless otherwise noted, to the domestic situation. Other cases examining the sensitivity of total petroleum demand to varying assumptions about prices, weather, and economic activity are shown. Discussions of the world oil price refer to the cost of imported crude oil to US refiners. The forecasts and historical data are based on EIA published data. The projections in this report extend from the third quarter of 1985 through the end of 1986. The energy picture for 1985 is projected to be different from that for 1984, mainly because of the slower rate of increase expected for economic activity. During 1984, total petroleum demand, net imports, and domestic petroleum production all increased significantly from year-earlier levels. In contrast, 1985 is expected to be a year of falling petroleum demand and imports, with a relatively stable level of domestic production. These trends are a reflection of the general economic patterns. Lower oil prices combined with continued economic growth in 1986 are expected to result in higher levels of oil supply, demand, and imports in 1986. The demand for total energy, which increased by nearly 5% in 1984, is expected to grow by more than 1% in 1985 and almost 2% in 1986. 7 figs., 17 tabs.

• Research Organization: USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC. Office of Energy Markets and End Use
• OSTI ID: 5382532
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0202(85/3Q); ON: DE85016266
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700 -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294002* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
COMPUTER CODES
DATA
DATA COMPILATION
DEMAND
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
ENERGY SUPPLIES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
IMPORTS
INFORMATION
NORTH AMERICA
NUMERICAL DATA
PETROLEUM
PRODUCTION
S CODES
THEORETICAL DATA
USA