Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, May 1984

Technical Report · Fri Jun 01 04:00:00 EDT 1984

OSTI ID:6774932

Domestic petroleum demand in 1984 is expected to show an increase, on an annual basis, for the first time since 1978. Due to the projected continuation of the current economic recovery, domestic petroleum consumption in 1984 is expected to average 15.6 million barrels per day, 3.0% higher than the 1983 demand. This is still 2.7% below the 1981 level. US petroleum demand in the first half of 1985 is projected to average 15.5 million barrels per day, slightly below the year-earlier level. This downward revision primarily reflects higher automobile efficiency and conservation of residual fuel oil in the industrial and utility sectors. Data for the first quarter show a slightly higher rate of economic recovery than forecast. World oil prices are expected to remain stable at $29 per barrel. US energy needs will be met by a higher level of oil imports in the short term; as domestic crude oil production is forecast to remain constant between 1983 and 1984. This forecast for oil imports assumes that OPEC will maintain the $29 per barrel marker crude price and increase production quotas as needed to meet demand. Increased oil consumption in the market economies is expected to be met by current production with no appreciable rise in the world oil price during 1984. The economic growth in the industrial nations is expected to continue throughout 1984. Demand for petroleum is projected to increase by about 2.4% and market economies by the first half of 1985. Domestic coal consumption is projected to increase by 8%, compared with a 4% increase last year. This forecast is contingent upon growth in electricity generation of nearly 5%.

• Research Organization: USDOE Energy Information Administration, Washington, DC. Office of Energy Markets and End Use
• OSTI ID: 6774932
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0202(84/2Q)-1; ON: DE84012804
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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