Crude oil prices--the direction

Conference · Tue Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 1983 · Soc. Pet. Eng. AIME, Pap.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5498617

Roberts, M L

Over the next 12 to 18 months, real crude prices should be flat to down, and thereafter increase at a rate equal to or less than inflation through 1985. This forecast is predicated on the assumption that free-world energy demand will be down by about 4% over the next five years to about 106 million BD crude oil equivalent. Assuming a compound annual growth rate in excess of 4% for non-oil supplies, to about 59 million BD crude oil equivalent, the free world's oil requirements are expected to total about 49 million BD in 1985, up about 7% from 1982's estimated level of about 46 million BD. If these assumptions are correct, they suggest that OPEC supplies will amount to about 76% of their productive capacity, or about 26 million BD, down 16% from 1979's peak level of 31 million BD. Thus, OPEC will have to exercise a self-discipline to prorate itself and thereby be able to maintain price controls over its supplies without seeing the crude price rupture to the mid-$20 per barrel level. During the 1973-1980 period, the demand for energy per $1,000 real GNP declined in excess of 14%, after the real price of energy advanced some 30% in 1973-1974, suggesting a negative price elasticity of 0.48 for the seven OCEP countries which consume about 68% of the world's energy supplies. The current uncertainties associated with conservation, substitution, efficiency and the general economic climate raise serious questions as to what the level of demand for petroleum products will be when the western world regains its economic momentum after the current recession. At that time, we may have a better handle on the price elasticity of energy and the ultimate market clearing price for crude.

• Research Organization: Lehman Management Co.
• OSTI ID: 5498617
• Report Number(s): CONF-830386-
• Conference Information: Journal Name: Soc. Pet. Eng. AIME, Pap.; (United States) Journal Volume: SPE 11314
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
DEMAND
ECONOMICS
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
INDUSTRY
INFLATION
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM INDUSTRY
PRICES
RATE STRUCTURE
SUPPLY AND DEMAND