Assessment of potential U. S. petroleum supply shortfalls, 1978. [Forecasting using Petroleum Allocation (PAL) model]
This paper provides a forecast of supply shortfalls for the United States that could result from alternative levels of petroleum-supply interruptions in the 1978 time frame. The analysis is in response to a request by the Office of Policy Coordination, Policy and Evaluation, Department of Energy to simulate five supply-disruption scenarios (25% and 50% OAPEC embargoes, Persian Gulf closure; OPEC embargo; and targeted OPEC embargo) using the Petroleum Allocation (PAL) computer model. The PAL model was developed by the EIA for the purpose of estimating future sources of petroleum imports to the United States and to calculate expected shortfalls in those imports that would result from supply interruptions. The model simulates total world trade in both crude oil and refined products and, in the case of a supply emergency, shares available petroleum supplies among member countries of the International Energy Agency as dictated in the International Energy Program (IEP).
- Research Organization:
- Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Energy Information Administration
- OSTI ID:
- 6177152
- Report Number(s):
- DOE/EIA-0102/38
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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Related Subjects
020100 -- Petroleum-- Reserves-- (-1989)
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ALLOCATIONS
EMBARGOES
ENERGY MODELS
ENERGY SHORTAGES
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
IMPORTS
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NORTH AMERICA
OAPEC
OPEC
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
RESOURCE POTENTIAL
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
USA