Assessment of potential US petroleum supply shortfalls, 1978 to 1990. Analysis Memorandum AM/IA/78-25

Technical Report · Fri Sep 15 04:00:00 EDT 1978

OSTI ID:6088454

Butler, D

An assessment of potential US petroleum supply shortfalls for the period 1978 to 1990 is based upon scenarios defined by the Department of Energy, International Affairs, in a June 19, 1978 memorandum entitled Supply Disruption Scenarios. The Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Oil Market Simulation model was used to quantify the oil price increases that would be necessary to constrain world demand for OPEquantity the oil oil to not exceed EIA's most optimistic estimates of OPEC production capacity. The EIA projection series have been modified to reflect the likelihood of constrained world oil supplies in the 1980s and associated increases in oil prices required to balance world supply and demand. The resulting modified versions of Projection Series C and D are referred to as Projection Series G and H, respectively. The new supply and demand projections were then used as the basis for calculating supply shortfalls using the Petroleum Allocation (PAL) model. A total of five disruption scenarios were simulated for the years 1978, 1980, 1985, and 1990 using the PAL model. The expected supply shortfalls to the United States resulting from each of these cases are summarized. The potential shortfalls vary significantly over the five disruption scenarios, ranging between 1.7 and 6.0 million barrels per day for the year 1978. However, the potential shortfalls are not expected to increase significantly during the 1980's. The estimates for 1990 increase to be between 2.0 and 6.8 million barrels per day. The principal reason for this relative stability of the projections over time is the assumed constraint on the future availability of OPEC oil even before any supply disruption occurs. This limited OPEC supply results in increasing prices of world oil, reduced demand growth, and only slight increases in the exposure of the industriaized countries to disruptions in the supply of Arab oil.

• Research Organization: Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Energy Information Administration
• OSTI ID: 6088454
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0102/13
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

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