Petroleum supply vulnerability, 1985 and 1990. Analysis report AR/IA/79-41

Technical Report · Sat Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 1979

OSTI ID:5781777

Butler, G D

Four different projections of world oil supply and demand were selected for use as the basis of the supply disruption simulations. Three of the selected projection series (SPRLOW, SPRMID, and SPRHIGH) incorporated the energy initiatives proposed by President Carter in his July 15, 1979 address to the nation. The fourth projection series (SPRHIGH2) assumes U.S. energy initiatives up to, but not including, the July 15th proposals. The low vulnerability case (SPRLOW) includes the lowest level of US imports. The assumed low OPEC production capacity in this case causes world oil prices to escalate sharply, which then encourages domestic production but curtails domestic consumption. The high vulnerability case (SPRHIGH) exhibits a continued high dependence on foreign imports. This case assumes high OPEC production capacity, and OPEC continues increasing its production until capacity is reached in 1983. This results in a price decline (in real terms) in the early 1980's. The SPRHIGH2 case, which excludes the July 15 initiatives, shows an even greater dependence on foreign imports due to less stringent energy initiatives related to enhanced oil recovery, synthetics production, and import ceilings. Eleven disruption scenarios were simulated for the years 1985 and 1990 for each of the four projection series; the expected supply shortfalls to the United States resulting from each of these disruptions are tabulated. Any strategy relating to the drawdown of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is not included in the calculation of the shortfalls. All of the shortfalls assume that the International Energy Program has been implemented for the allocation of remaining oil supplies.

• Research Organization: Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Energy Information Administration
• OSTI ID: 5781777
• Report Number(s): DOE/EIA-0184/16
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

02 PETROLEUM
020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics
Industrial
& Business Aspects
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294002 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Petroleum
ENERGY SHORTAGES
ENERGY SOURCES
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
IMPORTS
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
OIL-EXPORTING COUNTRIES
OPEC
PETROLEUM
PRICES
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
SUPPLY DISRUPTION
VULNERABILITY