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U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Oil supply shortfalls resulting from a Middle East cut-off, 1978--1980. Analysis memorandum

Technical Report ·
OSTI ID:6223996
A forecast is presented of supply shortfalls for the major industrial countries of the world that would result from a complete cutoff of Middle East petroleum in the 1978--1980 time frame. The analysis comprises a simulation of this interruption scenario using the Petroleum Allocation (PAL) computer model. The PAL model was developed by the Energy Information Administration for the purpose of estimating future sources of petroleum imports to the United States and to calculate expected shortfalls in those imports that would result from supply interruptions. The model simulates total world trade in both crude oil and refined products and, in the case of a supply emergency, allocates available petroleum supplies among member countries of the International Energy Agency as dictated in the International Energy Program (IEP).
Research Organization:
Department of Energy, Washington, DC (USA). Energy Information Administration
OSTI ID:
6223996
Report Number(s):
DOE/EIA-0102/43
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English