Summary of the utility common forecasting methodology II: demand forecast submissions. Staff report

Technical Report · Thu Jun 01 04:00:00 EDT 1978

OSTI ID:5956681

Joyner, D; Husted, A

This report summarizes the electricity sales and peak demand forecasts submitted by five major California utilities pursuant to the regulations governing the common forecasting methodology (CFM II). The utilities' CFM I submissions and the Energy Commission's adopted forecasts are presented for comparison. Six tables provide an overview of the sales and peak forecasts contained in the utility CFM II demand forecast submittals. In Table 1, the utilities combined project electricity sales to increase at an average rate of 4.2% annually through 1998 as compared to a 3.8% increase over the past ten years. The peak demand forecasts in Table 2 are projected to grow at slower rates than total electric sales, with growth averaging 3.6% annually. The disaggregation by sector (Table 3) indicates that commercial electric sales are projected to grow fastest with an average rate of 4.9% annually over the twenty year period. The industrial sector follows second (4.3%) with the residential (3.7%) and other (2.3%) sectors experiencing the lowest growth rates. Considerable variation exists in the projections of real prices of electricity among utilities (Table 4). Except for Southern California Edison, the utilities are projecting a decline in real electricity prices over the next twenty years. Table 5 portrays the economic growth assumptions that are used to drive the utilities' electricity forecasting models. In Table 6, the economic projections made by recognized forecasters are displayed to serve as benchmarks.

• Research Organization: California Energy Commission, Sacramento (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5956681
• Report Number(s): NP-23961
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
CALIFORNIA
DATA FORMS
DEMAND FACTORS
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY SOURCES
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
NATURAL GAS
NORTH AMERICA
PEAK LOAD
POWER
PRICES
PUBLIC UTILITIES
TABLES
USA
WESTERN REGION