ORNL rural electric-energy-demand forecasting model

Technical Report · Tue Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 1981

OSTI ID:6297941

Maddigan, R J; Chern, W S; Gallagher, C A; Holcomb, B D; Cobbs, J C

The development of a forecasting model of annual electrical-energy sales for the Rural Electrification Administration (REA) borrowers is discussed. The Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Rural Electric Energy Demand (ORNL-REED) model highlights the unique features of rural electricity demand by empirically examining the customers of the electric cooperatives. The model is used to forecast annual electricity sales by state and sector for the next twenty years. REED is a nonlinear, simultaneous-equation econometric model. It consists of submodels for the residential, commercial, industrial and irrigation sectors. The construction of a data base which reflects the cooperatives' service areas is described. The nine structural equations of REED were estimated using pooled, cross-section, time-series data for the period 1969 through 1977 for five regions. In general, the residential and commercial own-price demand elasticities are lower for the rural cooperatives than they are for the rest of the electric utility industry. However, the elasticities estimated by REED for the industrial sector tend to be higher than those estimated for the total state. The price elasticities of demand for irrigation are greater than the other sectors, indicating that the farmer is especially sensitive to changing electricity prices. The forecasts of the cooperatives' electricity demand are estimated for six sets of input assumptions, These projections give a range of total demand growth between 5.4% and 6.6% depending upon the demographic and fuel-price assumptions, compared to the 9.8% growth the cooperatives experienced between 1969 and 1977. The projected growth figures vary across states and sectors.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-26
• OSTI ID: 6297941
• Report Number(s): ORNL/TM-7863; ON: DE81030696
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
296002* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power Transmission & Distribution-- (-1989)
AGRICULTURE
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
DATA BASE MANAGEMENT
DEMOGRAPHY
ECONOMETRICS
ECONOMIC ELASTICITY
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY MODELS
FARMS
FORECASTING
INDUSTRIAL PLANTS
INDUSTRY
IRRIGATION
MANAGEMENT
MARKET
POWER
POWER DEMAND
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
RURAL AREAS