Analysis of recent fluctuations in electricity consumption

Conference · Sun Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1978 · Proc. Am. Power Conf.; (United States)

OSTI ID:6020492

Asher, H; Habermann, R Jr

The average annual growth rate of electricity sales was altered dramatically after the Arab oil embargo began in October 1973. Statistical analysis of 63 electric utilities revealed an unmistakable reduction in sales that could not be attributed to either electricity price or economic activity. This reduction is termed patriotic conservation. The major conclusion of this study is that the growth rate of electric utility industry sales was reduced by a sequence of demand shocks, lasting over a two-year period, consisting of patriotic conservation, rapid electricity growth, and an economic recession. The statistical model yielded regression equations that were used to forecast future electricity sales. The authors believe that, despite a number of technical and statistical problems with the model, the model is probably valid for a short forecast period showing the sensitivity of future electricity consumption to economic activity, electricity price, and weather. 3 tables.

• Research Organization: General Electric Co., Washington, DC
• OSTI ID: 6020492
• Report Number(s): CONF-780440-
• Conference Information: Journal Name: Proc. Am. Power Conf.; (United States) Journal Volume: 40
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290200 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Economics & Sociology
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
CHARGES
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC GROWTH
ECONOMIC IMPACT
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ELECTRIC UTILITIES
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY SHORTAGES
FORECASTING
INSTITUTIONAL FACTORS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
POWER
POWER DEMAND
PUBLIC UTILITIES
SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
STATISTICAL MODELS
WEATHER