Bonneville Power Administration Forecasts of Electricity Consumption in the Pacific Northwest; Technical Documentation.

Technical Report · Thu Nov 01 04:00:00 EST 1984

OSTI ID:5948553

This document presents a 20-year forecast of electricity consumption in the Pacific Northwest, for the years 1984 to 2004. It represents the second annual update of BPA's long-range forecast, to be used to meet BPA internal planning needs. The forecast consists of high, medium, and low case scenarios. By developing a range of load projections, the medium projection is produced by merging the results from separate long-term and midterm forecasting models. The high and low projections were produced using the long-term forecasting models only. The long-term forecast is produced using a series of demand models (each addressing a specific consuming sector) in conjunction with an electricity supply pricing model. These models provide a detailed breakdown of energy use, but they are not sensitive to monthly weather conditions, business cycles, or economic fluctuations which might prove significant in the near future. BPA's midterm forecasting models are designed specifically to be responsive to such factors, allowing them to be captured in the final medium case load forecast which merges the long-term and midterm model results. These midterm models econometrically forecast monthly energy demand by state but without any detail by consuming sector.

• Research Organization: USDOE Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR. Div. of Power Forecasting
• OSTI ID: 5948553
• Report Number(s): DOE/BP-409; ON: DE85009657
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
296000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Electric power consumption - Northwest
Pacific - Forecasting
FEDERAL REGION X
FORECASTING
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
NORTH AMERICA
POWER DEMAND
REGIONAL ANALYSIS
US DOE
US ORGANIZATIONS
USA