Bonneville Power Administration Forecasts of Electricity Consumption in the Pacific Northwest; Technical Documentation.

Technical Report · Sat Oct 01 04:00:00 EDT 1983

OSTI ID:5241887

A 20-year forecast of electricity consumption in the Pacific Northwest is presented for the years 1982-2003. Projections are expressed as a baseline, with alternative cases representing situations of high and low electricity consumption. All three projections are produced by merging separate long-term and midterm forecasts. The long-term forecast is produced using a series of demand models (each addressing a specific consuming sector) in conjunction with an electricity supply pricing model. These models provide a detailed breakdown of energy use and permit long-range comparisons of alternative power planning policy decisions. They are not, however, sensitive to weather conditions, business cycles, or economic fluctuations which might prove significant in the near future. BPA's midterm forecasting models are designed specifically to be responsive to such factors, allowing them to be captured in the final load forecast which merges the long-term and midterm projections. These midterm models econometrically forecast energy demand by state but without any detail by consuming sector. The midterm forecast will be updated quarterly to reflect the mot current regional projections of near-term economic activity.

• Research Organization: USDOE Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR. Div. of Power Requirements
• OSTI ID: 5241887
• Report Number(s): DOE/BP-179; ON: DE84006890
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
292000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
298000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Consumption & Utilization
BONNEVILLE POWER ADMINISTRATION
COMMERCIAL SECTOR
ECONOMIC ANALYSIS
ECONOMICS
ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY CONSERVATION
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY MODELS
Electric power consumption - Northwest
Pacific - Forecasting
FORECASTING
INDUSTRY
NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
POWER
POWER DEMAND
PRICES
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
US DOE
US ORGANIZATIONS