A probabilistic model for US nuclear power construction times

Thesis/Dissertation · Fri Jan 01 04:00:00 EST 1988

OSTI ID:5323723

Shash, A A.H.

Construction time for nuclear power plants is an important element in planning for resources to meet future load demands. Analysis of actual versus estimated construction times for past US nuclear power plants indicates that utilities have continuously underestimated their power plants' construction durations. The analysis also indicates that the actual average construction time has been increasing upward, and the actual durations of power plants permitted to construct in the same year varied substantially. This study presents two probabilistic models for nuclear power construction time for use by the nuclear industry as estimating tool. The study also presents a detailed explanation of the factors that are responsible for increasing and varying nuclear power construction times. Observations on 91 complete nuclear units were involved in three interdependent analyses in the process of explanation and derivation of the probabilistic models. The historical data was first utilized in the data envelopment analysis (DEA) for the purpose of obtaining frontier index measures for project management achievement in building nuclear power plants.

• Research Organization: Texas Univ., Austin, TX (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5323723
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS
210800* -- Nuclear Power Plants-- Economics
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290600 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Nuclear Energy
CONSTRUCTION
DATA ANALYSIS
FORECASTING
FUNCTIONAL MODELS
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
POWER PLANTS
PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION
THERMAL POWER PLANTS