IGT predicts moderate increase in U. S. energy consumption in 1978

Technical Report · Tue Dec 20 04:00:00 EST 1977

OSTI ID:5013880

Parent, J D; Linden, H R

A detailed energy supply and demand estimate for 1978 is presented, along with the original and revised estimates for 1977. The revised estimate of energy consumption in 1977 of 77.94 quads represents a 4.9% increase over the 1976 figure, and the predicted 1978 consumption of 80.46 quads is 3.2% greater than that. These figures compare to an expected increase in GNP of 4.9% in 1977, and 4.5% in 1978. On this basis, the ratio of energy consumption to GNP will continue its recent downward trend from 62.4 thousand Btu/$ (1972) in 1970 to 58.3 thousand Btu/$(1972) in 1976 and 1977 and 57.6 thousand Btu/$(1972) in 1978. This represents a close approach to the minimum value of 57.5 thousand Btu/$(1972) which occurred in 1966. The energy consumption per capita will continue to increase from the 1970-76 range of 328 to 355 million Btu per capita to 359.5 in 1977 and to 368.3 in 1978. Net oil imports are expected to rise from the 1976 level of 2588 million bbl (7.09 million bb/day) to 3125 in 1977 (8.56 million bbl/day) and to 3180 (8.71 million bbl/day) in 1978. Of these quantities, 250 million bbl are estimated to go into stocks in 1977 and 200 million bbl in 1978. Thus, this study indicates that imports will level off in 1978 rather than decline as some others have envisaged. Reasons for this include less than hoped-for contributions of nuclear energy, decreased hydroelectricity because of the drought, displacement of natural gas by oil, and delays in reaching full capacity in the Alyeska oil pipeline.

• Research Organization: Institute of Gas Technology, Chicago, Ill. (USA)
• OSTI ID: 5013880
• Report Number(s): NP-23123
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
290600 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Nuclear Energy
292000* -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Supply
Demand & Forecasting
294000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Fossil Fuels
296000 -- Energy Planning & Policy-- Electric Power
BITUMINOUS COAL
BLACK COAL
BROWN COAL
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
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ELECTRIC POWER
ENERGY CONSUMPTION
ENERGY DEMAND
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ENERGY SUPPLIES
FLUIDS
FORECASTING
FOSSIL FUELS
FUEL GAS
FUELS
GAS FUELS
GASES
HYDROELECTRIC POWER
LIGNITE
NATURAL GAS
NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS
NORTH AMERICA
NUCLEAR FACILITIES
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS
PETROLEUM
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
POWER
POWER PLANTS
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
THERMAL POWER PLANTS
USA