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CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways (CLDERA)

Technical Report ·
DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/2480139· OSTI ID:2480139
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  1. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
  2. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)
  3. Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
  4. NVIDIA Corporation, Santa Clara, CA (United States)
  5. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
  6. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)
  7. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)
  8. Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)
  9. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
  10. NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.
Research Organization:
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program
DOE Contract Number:
NA0003525
OSTI ID:
2480139
Report Number(s):
SAND--2024-13423R
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES