Tracing the impacts of Mount Pinatubo eruption on regional climate using spatially-varying changepoint detection

Shi-Jun, Samantha; Shand, Lyndsay; Li, Bo

doi:10.1214/24-AOAS1968

Tracing the impacts of Mount Pinatubo eruption on regional climate using spatially-varying changepoint detection

Journal Article · Sat Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2025 · The Annals of Applied Statistics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1214/24-AOAS1968· OSTI ID:2586246

Shi-Jun, Samantha ^[1]; Shand, Lyndsay ^[2]; Li, Bo ^[1]

Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States); Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)

Significant events, such as volcanic eruptions, can have global and long-lasting impacts on climate. These global impacts, however, are not uniform across space and time. Understanding how the Mt. Pinatubo eruption affects global and regional climate is of great interest for predicting the impact on climate due to similar events as well as understanding the possible effect of the stratospheric aerosol injections proposed to combat climate change. While many studies illustrated the impact of the Pinatubo eruption on a global scale, studies at a fine regional scale are scarce. Here, we propose a Bayesian spatially-varying changepoint detection and estimation method to trace the impact of Mt. Pinatubo eruption on regional climate. Our approach takes into account the diffusing nature and spatial correlation of the climate changes attributed to the volcanic eruption. We illustrate our method and demonstrate its advantages over an existing changepoint detection method through simulations. Finally, we apply our method to monthly stratospheric aerosol optical depth and surface temperature data from 1985 to 1995 to detect and estimate changepoints following the 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption. Our results quantitatively characterize the spatial pattern of the eruption’s impact on regional climate, complementing the previous studies on the global impact of the Pinatubo eruption.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: NA0003525

OSTI ID:: 2586246

Report Number(s):: SAND--2025-10121J; 1748763

Journal Information:: The Annals of Applied Statistics, Journal Name: The Annals of Applied Statistics Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 19; ISSN 1932-6157

Publisher:: Institute of Mathematical StatisticsCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (35)

Elastic functional changepoint detection of climate impacts from localized sources Tucker, J. Derek; Yarger, Drew Environmetrics, Vol. 35, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/env.2826	journal	October 2023
A survey of methods for time series change point detection Aminikhanghahi, Samaneh; Cook, Diane J. Knowledge and Information Systems, Vol. 51, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10115-016-0987-z	journal	September 2016
On the Validity of Commonly Used Covariance and Variogram Functions on the Sphere Huang, Chunfeng; Zhang, Haimeng; Robeson, Scott M. Mathematical Geosciences, Vol. 43, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s11004-011-9344-7	journal	June 2011
Asynchronous Changepoint Estimation for Spatially Correlated Functional Time Series Wang, Mengchen; Harris, Trevor; Li, Bo Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Vol. 28, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13253-022-00519-w	journal	October 2022
Subtropical gyre variability observed by ocean-color satellites McClain, Charles R.; Signorini, Sergio R.; Christian, James R. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, Vol. 51, Issue 1-3 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2003.08.002	journal	January 2004
Isotropic covariance functions on spheres: Some properties and modeling considerations Guinness, Joseph; Fuentes, Montserrat Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Vol. 143 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmva.2015.08.018	journal	January 2016
Spatio-temporal change-point modeling Majumdar, Anandamayee; Gelfand, Alan E.; Banerjee, Sudipto Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, Vol. 130, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jspi.2003.08.022	journal	March 2005
A spatially varying change points model for monitoring glaucoma progression using visual field data Berchuck, Samuel I.; Mwanza, Jean-Claude; Warren, Joshua L. Spatial Statistics, Vol. 30 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spasta.2019.02.001	journal	April 2019
Arctic Oscillation response to the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption: Effects of volcanic aerosols and ozone depletion Stenchikov, Georgiy Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, Issue D24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JD002090	journal	January 2002
Volcanic forcing of climate over the past 1500 years: An improved ice core-based index for climate models Gao, Chaochao; Robock, Alan; Ammann, Caspar Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue D23 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD010239	journal	January 2008
Volcanic signals in oceans Stenchikov, Georgiy; Delworth, Thomas L.; Ramaswamy, V. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 114, Issue D16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011673	journal	January 2009
Synoptic Circulation Impact on the Near‐Surface Temperature Difference Outweighs That of the Seasonal Signal in the Eastern Mediterranean Lensky, Itamar M.; Dayan, Uri; Helman, David Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JD027973	journal	October 2018
SAGE II measurements of early Pinatubo aerosols McCormick, M. P.; Veiga, R. E. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 19, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/91GL02790	journal	January 1992
Stratospheric temperature increases due to Pinatubo aerosols Labitzke, K.; McCormick, M. P. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 19, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/91GL02940	journal	January 1992
Monitoring the Mt. Pinatubo aerosol layer with NOAA/11 AVHRR data Stowe, L. L.; Carey, R. M.; Pellegrino, P. P. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 19, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/91GL02958	journal	January 1992
Solar radiative forcing at selected locations and evidence for global lower tropospheric cooling following the eruptions of El Chichón and Pinatubo Dutton, Ellsworth G.; Christy, John R. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 19, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1029/92GL02495	journal	December 1992
Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering Robock, Alan AIP Conference Proceedings https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4916181	conference	January 2015
Optimal Detection of Changepoints With a Linear Computational Cost Killick, R.; Fearnhead, P.; Eckley, I. A. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 107, Issue 500 https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2012.737745	journal	September 2012
Metropolis-Hastings Within Partially Collapsed Gibbs Samplers Van Dyk, David A.; Jiao, Xiyun Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, Vol. 24, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1080/10618600.2014.930041	journal	April 2015
Modeling Nonstationarity in Space and Time Shand, Lyndsay; Li, Bo Biometrics, Vol. 73, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1111/biom.12656	journal	January 2017
Circumglobal Transport of the El Chichon Volcanic Dust Cloud Robock, A.; Matson, M. Science, Vol. 221, Issue 4606 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.221.4606.195	journal	July 1983
Modeling changing dependency structure in multivariate time series Xuan, Xiang; Murphy, Kevin Proceedings of the 24th international conference on Machine learning - ICML '07 https://doi.org/10.1145/1273496.1273629	conference	January 2007
The Volcanic Signal in Surface Temperature Observations Robock, Alan; Mao, Jianping Journal of Climate, Vol. 8, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1086:TVSIST>2.0.CO;2	journal	May 1995
Identifying Signatures of Natural Climate Variability in Time Series of Global-Mean Surface Temperature: Methodology and Insights Thompson, David W. J.; Wallace, John M.; Jones, Phil D. Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3089.1	journal	November 2009
Nonseparable, Stationary Covariance Functions for Space–Time Data Gneiting, Tilmann Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 97, Issue 458 https://doi.org/10.1198/016214502760047113	journal	June 2002
Partially Collapsed Gibbs Samplers van Dyk, David A.; Park, Taeyoung Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 103, Issue 482 https://doi.org/10.1198/016214508000000409	journal	June 2008
Changepoints in the North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Record Robbins, Michael W.; Lund, Robert B.; Gallagher, Colin M. Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 106, Issue 493 https://doi.org/10.1198/jasa.2011.ap10023	journal	March 2011
Examples of Adaptive MCMC Roberts, Gareth O.; Rosenthal, Jeffrey S. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, Vol. 18, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1198/jcgs.2009.06134	journal	January 2009
Product Partition Models for Change Point Problems Barry, Daniel; Hartigan, J. A. The Annals of Statistics, Vol. 20, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176348521	journal	March 1992
Optimal scaling for various Metropolis-Hastings algorithms Roberts, Gareth O.; Rosenthal, Jeffrey S. Statistical Science, Vol. 16, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1015346320	journal	November 2001
Inference from Iterative Simulation Using Multiple Sequences Gelman, Andrew; Rubin, Donald B. Statistical Science, Vol. 7, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1214/ss/1177011136	journal	November 1992
Strictly and non-strictly positive definite functions on spheres Gneiting, Tilmann Bernoulli, Vol. 19, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.3150/12-BEJSP06	journal	September 2013
MERRA-2 tavg1_2d_aer_Nx: 2d,1-Hourly,Time-averaged,Single-Level,Assimilation,Aerosol Diagnostics V5.12.4 Office, Global Modeling And Assimilation; Pawson, Steven NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center https://doi.org/10.5067/KLICLTZ8EM9D	dataset	January 2015
MERRA-2 tavg1_2d_slv_Nx: 2d,1-Hourly,Time-Averaged,Single-Level,Assimilation,Single-Level Diagnostics V5.12.4 Office, Global Modeling And Assimilation; Pawson, Steven NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center https://doi.org/10.5067/VJAFPLI1CSIV	dataset	January 2015
Variability of subtropical upper tropospheric humidity Ryoo, J. -M.; Waugh, D. W.; Gettelman, A. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 8, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-2643-2008	journal	May 2008

Similar Records

A Multivariate Space‐Time Dynamic Model for Characterizing the Atmospheric Impacts Following the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption

Journal Article · Mon Aug 11 20:00:00 EDT 2025 · Environmetrics · OSTI ID:2587539

A general circulation model (GCM) parameterization of Pinatubo aerosols

Conference · Sun Mar 31 23:00:00 EST 1996 · OSTI ID:263525

Related Subjects

Aerosol optical depth
Bayesian hierarchical model
Spatially-varying changepoint
Temperature
Volcanic eruption

Tracing the impacts of Mount Pinatubo eruption on regional climate using spatially-varying changepoint detection

Citation Formats

References (35)

Similar Records

Related Subjects