Spatio-temporal multivariate cluster evolution analysis for detecting and tracking climate impacts

IV, Warren L. Davis; Carlson, Max L.; Tezaur, Irina K.; Bull, Diana L.; Peterson, Kara J.; Swiler, Laura P.

doi:10.1016/j.cam.2025.116583

Spatio-temporal multivariate cluster evolution analysis for detecting and tracking climate impacts

Journal Article · Thu Feb 20 00:00:00 EST 2025 · Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cam.2025.116583· OSTI ID:2583696

IV, Warren L. Davis ^[1]; Carlson, Max L. ^[2]; Tezaur, Irina K. ^[2]; Bull, Diana L. ^[1]; Peterson, Kara J. ^[1]; Swiler, Laura P. ^[1]

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large amounts of data produced by these models, together with the high internal variability of the Earth system, can obscure important source-to-impact relationships. Here, this paper presents a novel and efficient unsupervised data-driven approach for detecting statistically-significant impacts and tracing spatio-temporal source-impact pathways in the climate through a unique combination of ideas from anomaly detection, clustering and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Using as an exemplar the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of detecting known post-eruption impacts/events. We additionally describe a methodology for extracting meaningful sequences of post-eruption impacts/events by using NLP to efficiently mine frequent multivariate cluster evolutions, which can be used to confirm or discover the chain of physical processes between a climate source and its impact(s).

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC); USDOE Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Basic Energy Sciences (BES). Scientific User Facilities (SUF)

Grant/Contract Number:: NA0003525

OSTI ID:: 2583696

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 2533597

Journal Information:: Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, Journal Name: Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics Vol. 465; ISSN 0377-0427

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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