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Title: Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks: Land Use and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

Abstract

We explore the role of human land use and land cover change (LULCC) in modifying the terrestrial carbon budget in simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, extended to year 2300 by using the Community Earth System Model, . Overall, conversion of land (e.g., from forest to croplands via deforestation) results in a model-estimated, cumulative carbon loss of 490 Pg C between 1850 and 2300, larger than the 230 Pg C loss of carbon caused by climate change over this same interval. The LULCC carbon loss is a combination of a direct loss at the time of conversion and an indirect loss from the reduction of potential terrestrial carbon sinks. Approximately 40% of the carbon loss associated with LULCC in the simulations arises from direct human modification of the land surface; the remaining 60% is an indirect consequence of the loss of potential natural carbon sinks. Because of the multicentury carbon cycle legacy of current land use decisions, a globally averaged amplification factor of 2.6 must be applied to 2015 land use carbon losses to adjust for indirect effects. This estimate is 30% higher when considering the carbon cycle evolution after 2100. Most of the terrestrial uptake of anthropogenic carbonmore » in the model occurs from the influence of rising atmospheric CO 2 on photosynthesis in trees, and thus, model-projected carbon feedbacks are especially sensitive to deforestation.« less

Authors:
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [3];  [4];  [3];  [1];  [1];  [3];  [5]
  1. Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)
  2. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  4. Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst., Woods Hole, MA (United States)
  5. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)
OSTI Identifier:
1376543
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725
Resource Type:
Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Global Biogeochemical Cycles
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 31; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0886-6236
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES

Citation Formats

Mahowald, Natalie M., Randerson, James T., Lindsay, Keith, Munoz, Ernesto, Doney, Scott C., Lawrence, Peter, Schlunegger, Sarah, Princeton Univ., NJ, Ward, Daniel S., Princeton Univ., NJ, Lawrence, David, and Hoffman, Forrest M. Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks: Land Use and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks. United States: N. p., 2017. Web. doi:10.1002/2016GB005374.
Mahowald, Natalie M., Randerson, James T., Lindsay, Keith, Munoz, Ernesto, Doney, Scott C., Lawrence, Peter, Schlunegger, Sarah, Princeton Univ., NJ, Ward, Daniel S., Princeton Univ., NJ, Lawrence, David, & Hoffman, Forrest M. Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks: Land Use and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks. United States. doi:10.1002/2016GB005374.
Mahowald, Natalie M., Randerson, James T., Lindsay, Keith, Munoz, Ernesto, Doney, Scott C., Lawrence, Peter, Schlunegger, Sarah, Princeton Univ., NJ, Ward, Daniel S., Princeton Univ., NJ, Lawrence, David, and Hoffman, Forrest M. Mon . "Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks: Land Use and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks". United States. doi:10.1002/2016GB005374. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1376543.
@article{osti_1376543,
title = {Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks: Land Use and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks},
author = {Mahowald, Natalie M. and Randerson, James T. and Lindsay, Keith and Munoz, Ernesto and Doney, Scott C. and Lawrence, Peter and Schlunegger, Sarah and Princeton Univ., NJ and Ward, Daniel S. and Princeton Univ., NJ and Lawrence, David and Hoffman, Forrest M.},
abstractNote = {We explore the role of human land use and land cover change (LULCC) in modifying the terrestrial carbon budget in simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, extended to year 2300 by using the Community Earth System Model, . Overall, conversion of land (e.g., from forest to croplands via deforestation) results in a model-estimated, cumulative carbon loss of 490 Pg C between 1850 and 2300, larger than the 230 Pg C loss of carbon caused by climate change over this same interval. The LULCC carbon loss is a combination of a direct loss at the time of conversion and an indirect loss from the reduction of potential terrestrial carbon sinks. Approximately 40% of the carbon loss associated with LULCC in the simulations arises from direct human modification of the land surface; the remaining 60% is an indirect consequence of the loss of potential natural carbon sinks. Because of the multicentury carbon cycle legacy of current land use decisions, a globally averaged amplification factor of 2.6 must be applied to 2015 land use carbon losses to adjust for indirect effects. This estimate is 30% higher when considering the carbon cycle evolution after 2100. Most of the terrestrial uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the model occurs from the influence of rising atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis in trees, and thus, model-projected carbon feedbacks are especially sensitive to deforestation.},
doi = {10.1002/2016GB005374},
journal = {Global Biogeochemical Cycles},
issn = {0886-6236},
number = 1,
volume = 31,
place = {United States},
year = {2017},
month = {1}
}

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    Works referencing / citing this record:

    Interactions Between Land-Use Change and Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks
    journal, April 2018


    A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions
    journal, January 2018