Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks: Land Use and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

Mahowald, Natalie M.; Randerson, James T.; Lindsay, Keith; Munoz, Ernesto; Doney, Scott C.; Lawrence, Peter; Schlunegger, Sarah; Ward, Daniel S.; Lawrence, David; Hoffman, Forrest M.

doi:10.1002/2016GB005374

Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks: Land Use and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks

Journal Article · Mon Jan 23 00:00:00 EST 2017 · Global Biogeochemical Cycles

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005374· OSTI ID:1376543

Mahowald, Natalie M. ^[1]; Randerson, James T. ^[2]; Lindsay, Keith ^[3]; Munoz, Ernesto ^[3]; Doney, Scott C. ^[4]; Lawrence, Peter ^[3]; Schlunegger, Sarah ^[1]; Ward, Daniel S. ^[1]; Lawrence, David ^[3]; Hoffman, Forrest M. ^[5]

Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States)
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst., Woods Hole, MA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

We explore the role of human land use and land cover change (LULCC) in modifying the terrestrial carbon budget in simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, extended to year 2300 by using the Community Earth System Model, . Overall, conversion of land (e.g., from forest to croplands via deforestation) results in a model-estimated, cumulative carbon loss of 490 Pg C between 1850 and 2300, larger than the 230 Pg C loss of carbon caused by climate change over this same interval. The LULCC carbon loss is a combination of a direct loss at the time of conversion and an indirect loss from the reduction of potential terrestrial carbon sinks. Approximately 40% of the carbon loss associated with LULCC in the simulations arises from direct human modification of the land surface; the remaining 60% is an indirect consequence of the loss of potential natural carbon sinks. Because of the multicentury carbon cycle legacy of current land use decisions, a globally averaged amplification factor of 2.6 must be applied to 2015 land use carbon losses to adjust for indirect effects. This estimate is 30% higher when considering the carbon cycle evolution after 2100. Most of the terrestrial uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the model occurs from the influence of rising atmospheric CO₂ on photosynthesis in trees, and thus, model-projected carbon feedbacks are especially sensitive to deforestation.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1376543

Journal Information:: Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Journal Name: Global Biogeochemical Cycles Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 31; ISSN 0886-6236

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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