Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

Sharma, Bharat; Kumar, Jitendra; Collier, Nathan; Ganguly, Auroop R.; Hoffman, Forrest M.

doi:10.1029/2021jg006738

Title: Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

Journal Article · Thu Jun 09 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2021jg006738· OSTI ID:1872859

^[1];

^[2];

^[3];

^[4]

Northeastern Univ., Boston, MA (United States); Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Northeastern Univ., Boston, MA (United States)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

The increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) mole fraction affects global climate through radiative (trapping longwave radiation) and physiological effects (reduction of plant transpiration). We use the simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1-BGC) forced with Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 to investigate climate-vegetation feedbacks from 1850 to the year 2300. Human-induced land use and land cover change (LULCC), through biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, alter the climate and modify photosynthetic activity. The changing characteristics of extreme anomalies in photosynthesis, referred to as carbon cycle extremes, increase the uncertainty of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a net carbon sink. However, the role of LULCC in altering carbon cycle extremes under business-as-usual (continuously rising) CO₂ emissions is unknown. Here we show that LULCC magnifies the intensity, frequency, and extent of carbon cycle extremes, resulting in a net reduction in expected photosynthetic activity in the future. We found that large temporally contiguous negative carbon cycle extremes are due to a persistent decrease in soil moisture, which is triggered by declines in precipitation. With LULCC and global warming, vegetation exhibits increased vulnerability to hot and dry environmental conditions, increasing the frequency of fire events and resulting in considerable losses in photosynthetic activity. While most regions show strengthening of negative carbon cycle extremes, a few locations show a weakening effect driven by declining vegetation cover or benign climate conditions for photosynthesis. Increasing hot, dry, and fire-driven carbon cycle extremes are essential for improving carbon cycle modeling and estimation of ecosystem responses to LULCC and rising CO₂ mole fractions. Moreover, large aberrations in vegetation productivity represent potential and growing threats to human lives, wildlife, and food security.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1872859

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences, Vol. 127, Issue 6; ISSN 2169-8953

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (43)

Plant responses to increasing CO ₂ reduce estimates of climate impacts on drought severity Swann, Abigail L. S.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Koven, Charles D. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, Issue 36 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1604581113	journal	August 2016
Future climate risk from compound events Zscheischler, Jakob; Westra, Seth; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 8, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3	journal	May 2018
The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2973-2016	journal	January 2016
Regional Climate Sensitivity of Climate Extremes in CMIP6 Versus CMIP5 Multimodel Ensembles Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Hauser, Mathias Earth's Future, Vol. 8, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001474	journal	September 2020
Climate sensitivity to decadal land cover and land use change across the conterminous United States Xian, George Z.; Loveland, Thomas; Munson, Seth M. Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 192 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103262	journal	September 2020
Seasonally in ENSO-related precipitation, river discharges, soil moisture, and vegetation index in Colombia Poveda, Germán; Jaramillo, Alvaro; Gil, Marta María Water Resources Research, Vol. 37, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2000WR900395	journal	August 2001
Interannual variation of terrestrial carbon cycle: Issues and perspectives Piao, Shilong; Wang, Xuhui; Wang, Kai Global Change Biology, Vol. 26, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14884	journal	November 2019
Simulating Agriculture in the Community Land Model Version 5 Lombardozzi, Danica L.; Lu, Yaqiong; Lawrence, Peter J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 125, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005529	journal	August 2020
Reconciling leaf physiological traits and canopy flux data: Use of the TRY and FLUXNET databases in the Community Land Model version 4: COMMUNITY LAND MODEL CANOPY SCALING Bonan, Gordon B.; Oleson, Keith W.; Fisher, Rosie A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 117, Issue G2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JG001913	journal	June 2012
Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks: Land Use and Carbon Cycle Feedbacks Mahowald, Natalie M.; Randerson, James T.; Lindsay, Keith Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Vol. 31, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GB005374	journal	January 2017
Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations Pitman, A. J.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N.; Avila, F. B. Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 3, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-3-213-2012	journal	January 2012
Improving canopy processes in the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) using global flux fields empirically inferred from FLUXNET data Bonan, Gordon B.; Lawrence, Peter J.; Oleson, Keith W. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue G2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JG001593	journal	January 2011
Global Carbon Budget 2018 Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre Earth System Science Data, Vol. 10, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-10-2141-2018	journal	January 2018
Temporally Compound Heat Wave Events and Global Warming: An Emerging Hazard Baldwin, Jane Wilson; Dessy, Jay Benjamin; Vecchi, Gabriel A. Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF000989	journal	April 2019
Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts Frank, Dorothea; Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael Global Change Biology, Vol. 21, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12916	journal	May 2015
Impacts of climate extremes on gross primary production under global warming Williams, I. N.; Torn, M. S.; Riley, W. J. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 9, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/9/094011	journal	September 2014
Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands Hurtt, G. C.; Chini, L. P.; Frolking, S. Climatic Change, Vol. 109, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0153-2	journal	August 2011
Patterns and trends of the dominant environmental controls of net biome productivity Marcolla, Barbara; Migliavacca, Mirco; Rödenbeck, Christian Biogeosciences, Vol. 17, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2365-2020	journal	January 2020
The International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) System: Design, Theory, and Implementation Collier, Nathan; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Lawrence, David M. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 10, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001354	journal	November 2018
Importance of carbon dioxide physiological forcing to future climate change Cao, L.; Bala, G.; Caldeira, K. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 107, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0913000107	journal	May 2010
Modeling the interannual variability and trends in gross and net primary productivity of tropical forests from 1982 to 1999 Ichii, Kazuhito; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Nemani, Ramakrishna Global and Planetary Change, Vol. 48, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2005.02.005	journal	October 2005
Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity Moore, J. Keith; Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois Science, Vol. 359, Issue 6380 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aao6379	journal	March 2018
Evaluating Carbon Extremes in a Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Simulation Xu, Min; Mahajan, Salil; Hoffman, Forrest M. 2019 International Conference on Data Mining Workshops (ICDMW) https://doi.org/10.1109/ICDMW.2019.00052	conference	November 2019
The effect of vertically resolved soil biogeochemistry and alternate soil C and N models on C dynamics of CLM4 Koven, C. D.; Riley, W. J.; Subin, Z. M. Biogeosciences, Vol. 10, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7109-2013	journal	January 2013
Greening of the Earth and its drivers Zhu, Zaichun; Piao, Shilong; Myneni, Ranga B. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3004	journal	April 2016
Terrestrial biosphere model performance for inter-annual variability of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange Keenan, T. F.; Baker, Ian; Barr, Alan Global Change Biology, Vol. 18, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02678.x	journal	March 2012
Ecological Climatology Bonan, Gordon Cambridge University Press https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107339200	book	January 2016
Preindustrial-Control and Twentieth-Century Carbon Cycle Experiments with the Earth System Model CESM1(BGC) Lindsay, Keith; Bonan, Gordon B.; Doney, Scott C. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00565.1	journal	December 2014
Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application Lamarque, J. -F.; Bond, T. C.; Eyring, V. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 10, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010	journal	January 2010
Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster? Ban, Nikolina; Schmidli, Juerg; Schär, Christoph Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062588	journal	February 2015
Causes and implications of persistent atmospheric carbon dioxide biases in Earth System Models Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Arora, V. K. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 119, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JG002381	journal	February 2014
Temperature acclimation of photosynthesis and respiration: A key uncertainty in the carbon cycle-climate feedback: PHYSIOLOGICAL TEMPERATURE ACCLIMATION Lombardozzi, Danica L.; Bonan, Gordon B.; Smith, Nicholas G. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL065934	journal	October 2015
Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change O’Gorman, Paul A. Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 1, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0009-3	journal	April 2015
Climate extremes and the carbon cycle Reichstein, Markus; Bahn, Michael; Ciais, Philippe Nature, Vol. 500, Issue 7462 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12350	journal	August 2013
Changes in Climate Extremes and their Impacts on the Natural Physical Environment Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Nicholls, Neville; Easterling, David Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139177245.006	book	May 2012
Climate Extreme Versus Carbon Extreme: Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes to Temperature and Precipitation Pan, Shufen; Yang, Jia; Tian, Hanqin Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 125, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005252	journal	April 2020
Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests Hubau, Wannes; Lewis, Simon L.; Phillips, Oliver L. Nature, Vol. 579, Issue 7797 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2035-0	journal	March 2020
Simulating the Biogeochemical and Biogeophysical Impacts of Transient Land Cover Change and Wood Harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100 Lawrence, Peter J.; Feddema, Johannes J.; Bonan, Gordon B. Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00256.1	journal	May 2012
The modulated annual cycle: an alternative reference frame for climate anomalies Wu, Zhaohua; Schneider, Edwin K.; Kirtman, Ben P. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 31, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0437-z	journal	July 2008
Carbon cycle extremes during the 21st century in CMIP5 models: Future evolution and attribution to climatic drivers Zscheischler, Jakob; Reichstein, Markus; von Buttlar, Jannis Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062409	journal	December 2014
The carbon cycle response to two El Nino types: an observational study Chylek, Petr; Tans, Pieter; Christy, John Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9c5b	journal	January 2018
Why Does Amazon Precipitation Decrease When Tropical Forests Respond to Increasing CO ₂ ? Langenbrunner, B.; Pritchard, M. S.; Kooperman, G. J. Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EF001026	journal	April 2019
Lagged climatic effects on carbon fluxes over three grassland ecosystems in China Zhang, Tao; Xu, Mingjie; Xi, Yi Journal of Plant Ecology, Vol. 8, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtu026	journal	December 2014

Similar Records

Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

Journal Article · Fri May 04 00:00:00 EDT 2018 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences · OSTI ID:1872859

Lawrence, Peter J.; Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.

The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

Journal Article · Fri Sep 02 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Geoscientific Model Development (Online) · OSTI ID:1872859

Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut; +9 more

Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Variability

Journal Article · Mon Sep 26 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · F1000Research · OSTI ID:1872859

Baldocchi, Dennis; Ryu, Youngryel; Keenan, Trevor

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Title: Quantifying Carbon Cycle Extremes and Attributing Their Causes Under Climate and Land Use and Land Cover Change From 1850 to 2300

Citation Formats

References (43)

Similar Records

Related Subjects