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Attributing the Carbon Cycle Impacts of CMIP5 Historical and Future Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1)

Journal Article · · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2017jg004348· OSTI ID:1539735
 [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); DOE/OSTI
  2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  3. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
Historical global land use and land cover change (LULCC) emissions of 160 PgC represent a third of all human CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2010. Future land management decisions will have large impacts on the global carbon cycle, with scenarios ranging from continued deforestation and wood harvest to mitigation scenarios that reduce total emissions through afforestation and conversion to bioenergy. Here we present a systematic assessment of Community Earth System Model (CESM1) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) historic and projection simulations, with and without LULCC. For the historical period, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 123 PgC to the atmosphere, removing 130 PgC from ecosystems while increasing wood product pools by 7 PgC. Historical LULCC fluxes were equally divided between conversion and wood harvest fluxes. For the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 afforestation scenario CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 53 PgC to the atmosphere, removing 58 PgC out of the ecosystem and increasing wood product pools of 5 PgC. The afforestation offsets the Direct LULCC flux of 153 PgC with a negative Indirect LULCC flux of 94 PgC. For the RCP 8.5 high LULCC scenario, CESM produced a Net LULCC flux of 211 PgC, removing 227 PgC from ecosystems and increasing wood product pools of 15 PgC. The LULCC of the future RCP scenarios was dominated by wood harvest fluxes, which is a process that was not included in many of the CMIP5 models. The analysis framework also allowed the attribution of Indirect and Prior LULCC fluxes that offset the Direct LULCC fluxes in many cases.
Research Organization:
Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
FC03-97ER62402; SC0012972
OSTI ID:
1539735
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1438939
Journal Information:
Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 123; ISSN 2169-8953
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Potential roles of CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, climate change, and land use and land cover change on the global terrestrial carbon uptake in the twenty-first century journal August 2018

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