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Title: Empirical predictive models of daily relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit: Multiple regression analysis

Journal Article · · Journal of Geophysical Research. Space Physics
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA022414· OSTI ID:1402660
 [1];  [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [3];  [4]
  1. Augsburg College, Minneapolis, MN (United States)
  2. Institute of the Physics of the Earth, Moscow (Russia)
  3. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  4. British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)
+ Show Author Affiliations

The daily maximum relativistic electron flux at geostationary orbit can be predicted well with a set of daily averaged predictor variables including previous day's flux, seed electron flux, solar wind velocity and number density, AE index, IMF Bz, Dst, and ULF and VLF wave power. As predictor variables are intercorrelated, we used multiple regression analyses to determine which are the most predictive of flux when other variables are controlled. Empirical models produced from regressions of flux on measured predictors from 1 day previous were reasonably effective at predicting novel observations. Adding previous flux to the parameter set improves the prediction of the peak of the increases but delays its anticipation of an event. Previous day's solar wind number density and velocity, AE index, and ULF wave activity are the most significant explanatory variables; however, the AE index, measuring substorm processes, shows a negative correlation with flux when other parameters are controlled. This may be due to the triggering of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves by substorms that cause electron precipitation. VLF waves show lower, but significant, influence. The combined effect of ULF and VLF waves shows a synergistic interaction, where each increases the influence of the other on flux enhancement. Correlations between observations and predictions for this 1 day lag model ranged from 0.71 to 0.89 (average: 0.78). Furthermore, a path analysis of correlations between predictors suggests that solar wind and IMF parameters affect flux through intermediate processes such as ring current (Dst), AE, and wave activity.

Research Organization:
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
OSTI ID:
1402660
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-17-28047; TRN: US1703023
Journal Information:
Journal of Geophysical Research. Space Physics, Vol. 121, Issue 4; ISSN 2169-9380
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 30 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (3)

Quality of Prediction of Daily Relativistic Electrons Flux at Geostationary Orbit by Machine Learning Methods
  • Myagkova, Irina; Efitorov, Alexander; Shiroky, Vladimir
  • Artificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning – ICANN 2019: Text and Time Series: 28th International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, Munich, Germany, September 17–19, 2019, Proceedings, Part IV, p. 556-565 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-30490-4_45
book September 2019
Space Weather Effects in the Earth’s Radiation Belts journal December 2017
Space Weather Effects in the Earth’s Radiation Belts book January 2017

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Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES
Heliospheric and Magnetospheric Physics
multiple regression
multivariable analysis
empirical modeling
relativistic electron flux prediction at geosynchronous orbit