Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

Journal Article · Tue May 17 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Earth's Future

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000361· OSTI ID:1358521

Wobus, Cameron ^[1]; Flanner, Mark ^[2]; Sarofim, Marcus C. ^[3]; Moura, Maria Cecilia P. ^[4]; Smith, Steven J. ^[4]

---

1. Abt Associates Inc., Boulder, CO (United States)
2. Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)
3. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. (United States)
4. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States)

The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions from the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO₂ emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO₂ mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1358521
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-118327; 400408000
• Journal Information: Earth's Future, Vol. 4, Issue 6; ISSN 2328-4277
• Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
short-lived climate forcers
black carbon
Arctic climate
climate policy