Assessment of future changes in water availability and aridity
- Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science; Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM)
- Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science
Substantial changes in the hydrological cycle are projected for the 21st century, but these projections are subject to major uncertainties. In this context, the “dry gets drier, wet gets wetter” (DDWW) paradigm is often used as a simplifying summary. However, recent studies cast doubt on the validity of the paradigm and also on applying the widely used P-E (precipitation - evapotranspiration) metric over global land surfaces. Here we show in a comprehensive CMIP5-based assessment that projected changes in mean annual P - E are generally not significant, except for high-latitude regions showing wetting conditions until the end of the 21st century. Significant increases in aridity do occur in many subtropical and also adjacent humid regions. However, combining both metrics still shows that approximately 70% of all land area will not experience significant changes. Finally, based on these findings, we conclude that the DDWW paradigm is generally not confirmed for projected changes in most land areas.
- Research Organization:
- Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland); Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Program
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC52-07NA27344; CH2-01 11-1
- OSTI ID:
- 1354885
- Journal Information:
- Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 13; ISSN 0094-8276
- Publisher:
- American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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