Distribution of Wind Power Forecast Errors from Operational Systems
Wind power forecasting is one important tool in the integration of large amounts of renewable generation into the electricity system. Wind power forecasts from operational systems are not perfect, and thus, an understanding of the forecast error distributions can be important in system operations. In this work, we examine the errors from operational wind power forecasting systems, both for asingle wind plant and for an entire interconnection. The resulting error distributions are compared with the normal distribution and the distribution obtained from the persistence forecasting model at multiple timescales. A model distribution is fit to the operational system forecast errors and the potential impact on system operations highlighted through the generation of forecast confidenceintervals.
- Research Organization:
- National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind and Water Technologies Office (EE-4W)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC36-08GO28308
- OSTI ID:
- 1046306
- Report Number(s):
- CP-5500-52568; TRN: US201216%%148
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Proceedings of the 10th International Workshop on Large-Scale Integration of Wind Power into Power Systems as well as on Transmission Networks for Offshore Wind Power Plants, 25-26 October 2011, Aarhus, Denmark
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint
Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint