Comparison of Wind Power and Load Forecasting Error Distributions: Preprint
The introduction of large amounts of variable and uncertain power sources, such as wind power, into the electricity grid presents a number of challenges for system operations. One issue involves the uncertainty associated with scheduling power that wind will supply in future timeframes. However, this is not an entirely new challenge; load is also variable and uncertain, and is strongly influencedby weather patterns. In this work we make a comparison between the day-ahead forecasting errors encountered in wind power forecasting and load forecasting. The study examines the distribution of errors from operational forecasting systems in two different Independent System Operator (ISO) regions for both wind power and load forecasts at the day-ahead timeframe. The day-ahead timescale iscritical in power system operations because it serves the unit commitment function for slow-starting conventional generators.
- Research Organization:
- National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Wind and Water Technologies Office (EE-4W)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC36-08GO28308
- OSTI ID:
- 1046875
- Report Number(s):
- NREL/CP-5500-54384; TRN: US201215%%566
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: Presented at the 2012 World Renewable Energy Forum, 13-17 May 2012, Denver, Colorado
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
A Comparison of Forecast Error Generators for Modeling Wind and Load Uncertainty
Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations