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Title: EXPERT ELICITATION OF ACROSS-TECHNOLOGY CORRELATIONS FOR REACTOR CAPITAL COSTS

Calculations of the uncertainty in the Levelized Cost at Equilibrium (LCAE) of generating nuclear electricity typically assume that the costs of the system component, notably reactors, are uncorrelated. Partial cancellation of independent errors thus gives rise to unrealistically small cost uncertainties for fuel cycles that incorporate multiple reactor technologies. This summary describes an expert elicitation of correlations between overnight reactor construction costs. It also defines a method for combining the elicitations into a single, consistent correlation matrix suitable for use in Monte Carlo LCAE calculations. Both the elicitation and uncertainty propagation methods are demonstrated through a pilot study where cost correlations between eight reactor technologies were elicited from experts in the US DOE Fuel Cycle Research
Authors:
;
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1156925
Report Number(s):
INL/JOU-14-33089
DOE Contract Number:
DE-AC07-05ID14517
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Transactions of the American Nuclear Society,; Journal Volume: 110
Research Org:
Idaho National Laboratory (INL)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS Reactor capital costs