Expert elicitation survey predicts 37% to 49% declines in wind energy costs by 2050

Wiser, Ryan; Rand, Joseph; Seel, Joachim; Beiter, Philipp; Baker, Erin; Lantz, Eric; Gilman, Patrick

doi:10.1038/s41560-021-00810-z

Title: Expert elicitation survey predicts 37% to 49% declines in wind energy costs by 2050

Journal Article · Thu Apr 15 00:00:00 EDT 2021 · Nature Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00810-z· OSTI ID:1783140

^[1]; Rand, Joseph ^[1]; Seel, Joachim ^[1];

^[2];

^[3];

^[2]; Gilman, Patrick ^[4]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States)
US Department of Energy (USDOE), Washington DC (United States)

Wind energy has experienced accelerated cost reduction over the past five years—far greater than predicted in a 2015 expert elicitation. Here we report results from a new survey on wind costs, compare those with previous results and discuss the accuracy of the earlier predictions. In this work, we show that experts in 2020 expect future onshore and offshore wind costs to decline 37–49% by 2050, resulting in costs 50% lower than predicted in 2015. This is due to cost reductions witnessed over the past five years and expected continued advancements. If realized, these costs might allow wind to play a larger role in energy supply than previously anticipated. Considering both surveys, we also conclude that there is considerable uncertainty about future costs. Our results illustrate the importance of considering cost uncertainty, highlight the value and limits of using experts to reveal those uncertainties, and yield possible lessons for energy modellers and expert elicitation.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Wind Energy Technologies Office

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC36-08GO28308

OSTI ID:: 1783140

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1781609

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-5000-78630; ark:/13030/qt7fk2j3wc

Journal Information:: Nature Energy, Vol. 6, Issue 5; ISSN 2058-7546

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Title: Expert elicitation survey predicts 37% to 49% declines in wind energy costs by 2050

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