Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures
Abstract
Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO2 emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO2 and non-CO2 GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO2 mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO2 must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO2 mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO2 commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO2 emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO2 mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO2 for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios.
- Authors:
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[2];
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[3];
[1];
[1];
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- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), College Park, MD (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute; Electric Power Research Inst. (EPRI), Washington, DC (United States)
- US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Washington, DC (United States)
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE; USEPA
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1831468
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-158423
Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830; DW-089-92460001
- Resource Type:
- Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Nature Communications
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 12; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 2041-1723
- Publisher:
- Nature Publishing Group
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; climate-change mitigation
Citation Formats
Ou, Yang, Roney, Christopher, Alsalam, Jameel, Calvin, Katherine, Creason, Jared, Edmonds, Jae, Fawcett, Allen A., Kyle, Page, Narayan, Kanishka, O’Rourke, Patrick, Patel, Pralit, Ragnauth, Shaun, Smith, Steven J., and McJeon, Haewon. Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures. United States: N. p., 2021.
Web. doi:10.1038/s41467-021-26509-z.
Ou, Yang, Roney, Christopher, Alsalam, Jameel, Calvin, Katherine, Creason, Jared, Edmonds, Jae, Fawcett, Allen A., Kyle, Page, Narayan, Kanishka, O’Rourke, Patrick, Patel, Pralit, Ragnauth, Shaun, Smith, Steven J., & McJeon, Haewon. Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures. United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26509-z
Ou, Yang, Roney, Christopher, Alsalam, Jameel, Calvin, Katherine, Creason, Jared, Edmonds, Jae, Fawcett, Allen A., Kyle, Page, Narayan, Kanishka, O’Rourke, Patrick, Patel, Pralit, Ragnauth, Shaun, Smith, Steven J., and McJeon, Haewon. Fri .
"Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures". United States. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26509-z. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1831468.
@article{osti_1831468,
title = {Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures},
author = {Ou, Yang and Roney, Christopher and Alsalam, Jameel and Calvin, Katherine and Creason, Jared and Edmonds, Jae and Fawcett, Allen A. and Kyle, Page and Narayan, Kanishka and O’Rourke, Patrick and Patel, Pralit and Ragnauth, Shaun and Smith, Steven J. and McJeon, Haewon},
abstractNote = {Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 °C requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO2 and non-CO2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global non-CO2 emissions and mitigation data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM and examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO2 and non-CO2 GHG abatement pathways. We estimate that when non-CO2 mitigation contributions are not fully implemented, the timing of net-zero CO2 must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, comprehensive GHG abatement that fully integrates non-CO2 mitigation measures in addition to a net-zero CO2 commitment can help achieve 1.5 °C stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces non-CO2 emissions from fuel extraction and end use, targeted non-CO2 mitigation measures can significantly reduce fluorinated gas emissions from industrial processes and cooling sectors. Our integrated modeling provides direct insights in how system-wide all GHG mitigation can affect the timing of net-zero CO2 for 1.5 °C and 2 °C climate change scenarios.},
doi = {10.1038/s41467-021-26509-z},
journal = {Nature Communications},
number = 1,
volume = 12,
place = {United States},
year = {Fri Oct 29 00:00:00 EDT 2021},
month = {Fri Oct 29 00:00:00 EDT 2021}
}
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