Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Zhao, Xin; Mignone, Bryan K.; Wise, Marshall A.; McJeon, Haewon C.

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-46575-3

Title: Trade-offs in land-based carbon removal measures under 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Journal Article · 13 March 2024 · Nature Communications

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-46575-3 · OSTI ID:2324817

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Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute
ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Co., Annandale, NJ (United States)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States). Joint Global Change Research Institute; Korea Advanced Inst. Science and Technology (KAIST), Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

Land-based carbon removals, specifically afforestation/reforestation and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), vary widely in 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios generated by integrated assessment models. Because underlying drivers are difficult to assess, we use a well-known integrated assessment model, GCAM, to demonstrate that land-based carbon removals are sensitive to the strength and scope of land-based mitigation policies. We find that while cumulative afforestation/reforestation and BECCS deployment are inversely related, they are both typically part of cost-effective mitigation pathways, with forestry options deployed earlier. While the CO₂ removal intensity (removal per unit land) of BECCS is typically higher than afforestation/reforestation over long time horizons, the BECCS removal intensity is sensitive to feedstock and technology choices whereas the afforestation/reforestation removal intensity is sensitive to land policy choices. Finally, we find a generally positive relationship between agricultural prices and removal effectiveness of land-based mitigation, suggesting that some trade-offs may be difficult to avoid.

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Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 2324817

Report Number(s):: PNNL-ACT--SA-10779

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Journal Issue: 1 Vol. 15; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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