Title: Shifts in hydroclimatology of US megaregions in response to climate change

Abstract

Most of the population and economic growth in the United States occurs in megaregions as the clustered metropolitan areas, whereas climate change may amplify negative impacts on water and natural resources. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatology of fourteen US megaregions in response to climate change over the 21st century. Hydroclimatic projections were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model driven by three downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset to cover driest to wettest future conditions in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Shifts in the regional hydroclimatolgy and basin characteristics of US megaregions were represented as a combination of changes in the aridity and evaporative indices using the Budyko framework and Fu's equation. Changes in the climate types of US megaregions were estimated using the Fine Gaussian Support Vector Machine (SVM) method. The results indicate that Los Angeles, San Diego, and San Francisco are more likely to experience less arid conditions with some shifts from Continental to Temperate climate type while the hydroclimatology of Houston may become drier with some shifts from Temperate to Continental climate type. Additionally, water yield is likely to decrease in Seattle. Change in the hydroclimatology of Denver andmore » Phoenix highly depends on the selected climate model. However, the basin characteristics of Phoenix have the highest sensitivity to climate change. Overall, the hydroclimatic conditions of Los Angeles, San Diego, Phoenix, Denver, and Houston have the highest sensitivity to climate change. Understanding of future shifts in hydroclimatology of megaregions can help decision-makers to attenuate negative consequences by implementing appropriate adaptation strategies, particularly in the water-scare megaregions.« less

Authors:

Heidari, Hadi  ^[1];

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Heidari, Hadi"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0003-1583-0237"

Arabi, Mazdak ^[1]; Warziniack, Travis ^[2]; Kao, Shih-Chieh  ^[3]

• Search DOE PAGES for author "Kao, Shih-Chieh"
• Search DOE PAGES for ORCID "0000-0002-3207-5328"

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+ Show Author Affiliations

1. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
2. USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO (United States). Rocky Mountain Research Station
3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute

Publication Date:

Mon Jun 07 00:00:00 EDT 2021

Research Org.:

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Org.:

USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)

OSTI Identifier:

1811375

Grant/Contract Number:  

AC05-00OR22725

Resource Type:

Accepted Manuscript

Journal Name:

Environmental Research Communications

Additional Journal Information:

Journal Volume: 3; Journal Issue: 6; Journal ID: ISSN 2515-7620

Publisher:

IOP Science

Country of Publication:

United States

Language:

English

Subject:

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 58 GEOSCIENCES; hydroclimatology; Megaregions; climate change; Budyko framework