DOE PAGES title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century

Abstract

Characterization of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions helps reduce negative consequences on agriculture, environment, economy, society, and ecosystem. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions across the conterminous United States in response to climate change over the 21st Century. The hydrological responses of five downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset ranging from the driest to wettest and least warm to hottest were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions at 8-digit hydrologic unit scale (HUC8) were evaluated by the magnitude and direction of movements in the Budyko space. HUC8 river basins were then clustered into seven unique hydroclimatic behavior groups using the K-means method. A tree classification method was proposed to illustrate the relationships between hydroclimatic behavior groups and regional characteristics. The results indicate that hydroclimatic responses may vary from a river basin to another, but basins in the same neighborhood follow a similar movement in the Budyko space. The systematic hydroclimatic behavior of river basins is highly associated with their regional landform, climate, and ecosystem characteristics. Most HUC8s with Mountain, Plateau and Basin landform types will likely experience less arid conditions. However, most HUC8s with Plain landformmore » type behave differently according to the regional ecosystem and climate. This study provides a potential roadmap of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions of U.S. river basins, which can be used to improve regional preparedness and ability of various sectors to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of future hydroclimate change.« less

Authors:
ORCiD logo [1];  [1];  [2]; ORCiD logo [3]
  1. Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
  2. USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO (United States). Rocky Mountain Research Station
  3. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE); National Science Foundation (NSF)
OSTI Identifier:
1659571
Grant/Contract Number:  
AC05-00OR22725; 1444758
Resource Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Earth's Future
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: TBD; Journal Issue: TBD; Journal ID: ISSN 2328-4277
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; Hydroclimatic Shifts; Budyko Framework; Climate Change; Tree Classification

Citation Formats

Heidari, Hadi, Arabi, Mazdak, Warziniack, Travis, and Kao, Shih‐Chieh. Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.1029/2020ef001657.
Heidari, Hadi, Arabi, Mazdak, Warziniack, Travis, & Kao, Shih‐Chieh. Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century. United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ef001657
Heidari, Hadi, Arabi, Mazdak, Warziniack, Travis, and Kao, Shih‐Chieh. Sat . "Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century". United States. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020ef001657. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1659571.
@article{osti_1659571,
title = {Assessing Shifts in Regional Hydroclimatic Conditions of U.S. River Basins in Response to Climate Change over the 21st Century},
author = {Heidari, Hadi and Arabi, Mazdak and Warziniack, Travis and Kao, Shih‐Chieh},
abstractNote = {Characterization of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions helps reduce negative consequences on agriculture, environment, economy, society, and ecosystem. This study assesses shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions across the conterminous United States in response to climate change over the 21st Century. The hydrological responses of five downscaled climate models from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) dataset ranging from the driest to wettest and least warm to hottest were simulated using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions at 8-digit hydrologic unit scale (HUC8) were evaluated by the magnitude and direction of movements in the Budyko space. HUC8 river basins were then clustered into seven unique hydroclimatic behavior groups using the K-means method. A tree classification method was proposed to illustrate the relationships between hydroclimatic behavior groups and regional characteristics. The results indicate that hydroclimatic responses may vary from a river basin to another, but basins in the same neighborhood follow a similar movement in the Budyko space. The systematic hydroclimatic behavior of river basins is highly associated with their regional landform, climate, and ecosystem characteristics. Most HUC8s with Mountain, Plateau and Basin landform types will likely experience less arid conditions. However, most HUC8s with Plain landform type behave differently according to the regional ecosystem and climate. This study provides a potential roadmap of shifts in regional hydroclimatic conditions of U.S. river basins, which can be used to improve regional preparedness and ability of various sectors to mitigate or adapt to the impacts of future hydroclimate change.},
doi = {10.1029/2020ef001657},
journal = {Earth's Future},
number = TBD,
volume = TBD,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Aug 29 00:00:00 EDT 2020},
month = {Sat Aug 29 00:00:00 EDT 2020}
}

Works referenced in this record:

A comparison of statistical downscaling methods suited for wildfire applications
journal, March 2011

  • Abatzoglou, John T.; Brown, Timothy J.
  • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 32, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.1002/joc.2312

Trends in 20th century drought over the continental United States: U.S. DROUGHT TRENDS
journal, May 2006

  • Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 33, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1029/2006GL025711

Near-term acceleration of hydroclimatic change in the western U.S.: NEAR-TERM WESTERN US SNOW
journal, October 2013

  • Ashfaq, Moetasim; Ghosh, Subimal; Kao, Shih-Chieh
  • Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 118, Issue 19
  • DOI: 10.1002/jgrd.50816

Using the Köppen classification to quantify climate variation and change: An example for 1901–2010
journal, April 2013


Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States
journal, December 2008

  • Daly, Christopher; Halbleib, Michael; Smith, Joseph I.
  • International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 28, Issue 15
  • DOI: 10.1002/joc.1688

Hydroclimatic shifts driven by human water use for food and energy production
journal, October 2012

  • Destouni, Georgia; Jaramillo, Fernando; Prieto, Carmen
  • Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1719

Chronic and Acute Coastal Flood Risks to Assets and Communities in Southeast Florida
journal, July 2020


A Coherent Statistical Model for Coastal Flood Frequency Analysis Under Nonstationary Sea Level Conditions
journal, February 2019

  • Ghanbari, Mahshid; Arabi, Mazdak; Obeysekera, Jayantha
  • Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 2
  • DOI: 10.1029/2018EF001089

Global assessment of trends in wetting and drying over land
journal, September 2014

  • Greve, Peter; Orlowsky, Boris; Mueller, Brigitte
  • Nature Geoscience, Vol. 7, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2247

Watershed-Scale Response to Climate Change through the Twenty-First Century for Selected Basins across the United States
journal, June 2011

  • Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Ward-Garrison, Christian
  • Earth Interactions, Vol. 15, Issue 17
  • DOI: 10.1175/2010EI370.1

The Role of Urban Growth in Resilience of Communities Under Flood Risk
journal, March 2020

  • Hemmati, Mona; Ellingwood, Bruce R.; Mahmoud, Hussam N.
  • Earth's Future, Vol. 8, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001382

Dominant effect of increasing forest biomass on evapotranspiration: interpretations of movement in Budyko space
journal, January 2018

  • Jaramillo, Fernando; Cory, Neil; Arheimer, Berit
  • Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 22, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.5194/hess-22-567-2018

Trends in Water Yield under Climate Change and Urbanization in the US Mid-Atlantic Region
journal, August 2018


Response of streamflow to environmental changes: A Budyko-type analysis based on 144 river basins over China
journal, May 2019


Twenty-First-Century Climate in CMIP5 Simulations: Implications for Snow and Water Yield across the Contiguous United States
journal, August 2017

  • Mahat, Vinod; Ramírez, Jorge A.; Brown, Thomas C.
  • Journal of Hydrometeorology, Vol. 18, Issue 8
  • DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0098.1

North American Regional Reanalysis
journal, March 2006

  • Mesinger, Fedor; DiMego, Geoff; Kalnay, Eugenia
  • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 87, Issue 3
  • DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-87-3-343

Regional hydrologic response to climate change in the conterminous United States using high-resolution hydroclimate simulations
journal, August 2016


Ecoregions of the Conterminous United States: Evolution of a Hierarchical Spatial Framework
journal, September 2014


A large-scale, high-resolution hydrological model parameter data set for climate change impact assessment for the conterminous US
journal, January 2014

  • Oubeidillah, A. A.; Kao, S. -C.; Ashfaq, M.
  • Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 18, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-67-2014

Future Hydroclimatic Impacts on Africa: Beyond the Paris Agreement
journal, July 2019

  • Piemontese, Luigi; Fetzer, Ingo; Rockström, Johan
  • Earth's Future, Vol. 7, Issue 7
  • DOI: 10.1029/2019EF001169

Ecosystem resilience despite large-scale altered hydroclimatic conditions
journal, January 2013

  • Ponce-Campos, Guillermo E.; Moran, M. Susan; Huete, Alfredo
  • Nature, Vol. 494, Issue 7437
  • DOI: 10.1038/nature11836

Budyko's Framework and Climate Elasticity Concept in the Estimation of Climate Change Impacts on the Long-Term Mean Annual Streamflow
conference, July 2013

  • Junior, D. S. Reis; Cerqueira, C. M.; Vieira, R. F.
  • World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2013
  • DOI: 10.1061/9780784412947.107

Evaluation of water-energy balance frameworks to predict the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change
journal, January 2012

  • Renner, M.; Seppelt, R.; Bernhofer, C.
  • Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 16, Issue 5
  • DOI: 10.5194/hess-16-1419-2012

A Budyko framework for estimating how spatial heterogeneity and lateral moisture redistribution affect average evapotranspiration rates as seen from the atmosphere
journal, January 2017

  • Rouholahnejad Freund, Elham; Kirchner, James W.
  • Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 21, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-217-2017

Estimation of Evapotranspiration Across the Conterminous United States Using a Regression With Climate and Land-Cover Data 1
journal, December 2012

  • Sanford, Ward E.; Selnick, David L.
  • JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 49, Issue 1
  • DOI: 10.1111/jawr.12010

Hydroclimatology of the continental United States: U.S. HYDROCLIMATOLOGY
journal, April 2003

  • Sankarasubramanian, A.; Vogel, Richard M.
  • Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 30, Issue 7
  • DOI: 10.1029/2002GL015937

Generating surfaces of daily meteorological variables over large regions of complex terrain
journal, March 1997


Exploring hydroclimatic change disparity via the Budyko framework: EXPLORING HYDROCLIMATIC CHANGE DISPARITY
journal, July 2013

  • van der Velde, Ype; Vercauteren, Nikki; Jaramillo, Fernando
  • Hydrological Processes, Vol. 28, Issue 13
  • DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9949

Hydroclimatic regimes: a distributed water-balance framework for hydrologic assessment, classification, and management
journal, January 2014

  • Weiskel, P. K.; Wolock, D. M.; Zarriello, P. J.
  • Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 18, Issue 10
  • DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-3855-2014

Projection of future runoff change using climate elasticity method derived from Budyko framework in major basins across China
journal, March 2018


Future hydroclimatological changes in South America based on an ensemble of regional climate models
journal, May 2018

  • Zaninelli, Pablo G.; Menéndez, Claudio G.; Falco, Magdalena
  • Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, Issue 1-2
  • DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4225-0

Hydrological responses to climatic changes in the Yellow River basin, China: Climatic elasticity and streamflow prediction
journal, November 2017